Farmers, cattle ranchers, and hotel and restaurant managers across the United States expressed relief last week when President Donald Trump announced a pause on immigration raids that had been causing turmoil in their industries. Rebecca Shi, CEO of the American Business Immigration Coalition, remarked, “There was finally a sense of calm.” Unfortunately, this brief sense of security was short-lived. Just days later, Assistant Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Tricia McLaughlin, reaffirmed the administration's stance, stating, “There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine immigration enforcement efforts.” This message has left many businesses perplexed regarding the government’s actual immigration policy.
Shi noted, “There’s fear and worry once more.” The erratic nature of these policies contributes to a stressful work environment for employees, many of whom are foreign-born. Trump's campaign platform focused heavily on the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants in the U.S., a topic that resonates strongly with his GOP base. The crackdown intensified recently under the direction of Stephen Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff, who instructed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to ramp up arrests from 650 to a staggering 3,000 per day.
The increased presence of ICE has led to alarming situations on farms, with reports of agents intimidating workers. Shi described a raid that reduced a New Mexico dairy's workforce from 55 to just 20 employees. “You can’t turn off cows,” lamented Beverly Idsinga, Executive Director of the Dairy Producers of New Mexico, emphasizing the critical nature of timely animal care. In urban settings, such as Chef Claudio Gonzalez's restaurant in Los Angeles, fears surrounding immigration enforcement have resulted in many Hispanic workers—regardless of their legal status—calling in sick out of fear. With the restaurant located near federal buildings, including an ICE detention center, the anxiety among workers is palpable.
In rural areas, the problem is compounded by rumors of raids. During cherry-harvesting season in Washington state, many foreign-born workers have opted to stay away from orchards after hearing unverified reports of impending ICE actions. Jon Folden, an orchard manager at Blue Bird in Washington's Wenatchee River Valley, reported that his operation, which typically employs 150 pickers, is now down to just 20 due to unfounded fears of immigration enforcement.
Jennie Murray, CEO of the National Immigration Forum, highlighted the distress among immigrant parents who fear workplace raids could leave their children without care. She relayed conversations where parents questioned whether to attend work, fearing that their children could return from school to an empty home. These distressing narratives were conveyed to Trump and members of his administration, with business advocacy groups like Shi's coalition urging action.
In a striking contradiction, Trump recently shared on his Truth Social platform that the aggressive immigration policies are detrimental to U.S. farmers and hospitality workers, asserting that these policies are driving away valuable employees. This statement illustrates the conflict between Trump’s political agenda and the economic realities businesses face.
With U.S. unemployment rates hovering around 4.2%, businesses are increasingly reliant on immigrant labor to fill essential roles. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, foreign-born workers represented less than 19% of the total workforce in 2023, yet they accounted for nearly 24% of positions in food preparation and service, and 38% in agriculture, fishing, and forestry.
Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association, noted, “It’s clear that those pushing for these raids lack an understanding of farm operations.” Meanwhile, economist Torsten Slok estimated that undocumented workers comprise 13% of farm jobs and 7% of hospitality roles. Additionally, a Pew Research Center survey revealed that 75% of registered voters, including 59% of Trump supporters, believe undocumented immigrants primarily fill jobs that American citizens are unwilling to take. The influx of immigrants in recent years has also helped the U.S. economy navigate inflation without slipping into recession.
As Trump's deportation plans unfold, uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the economy. Patrick Murphy, Chief Investment Officer at Coastal Construction and a former Democratic congressman, emphasized that many industries depend on immigrant labor. He stated, “When there are sudden crackdowns or raids, it slows timelines, drives up costs, and makes it harder to plan ahead.”
Douglas Holtz Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, further reinforced this sentiment, noting that ICE has detained lawful immigrants, which has instilled fear among those who are legally working. He remarked, “All of this goes against other economic objectives the administration might have. The immigration policy and the economic policy are not lining up at all.”
This ongoing tension between immigration policy and economic needs continues to challenge businesses across the nation, leaving many wondering what the future holds for their workforce and operations.
