Crude oil prices experienced a slight decrease on Sunday, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the political situation in Venezuela following the recent overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro. U.S. crude oil prices fell by 31 cents, or 0.54%, settling at $57.01 per barrel. Meanwhile, the global benchmark, Brent crude, saw a decline of 22 cents, or 0.36%, bringing it down to $60.53 per barrel.
In a press conference held at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, President Donald Trump emphasized that U.S. investment in Venezuela's oil sector is a primary goal of the regime change operation that led to Maduro's ousting. Trump stated, "We're going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, and fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure."
Despite the regime change, the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains firmly in place. This embargo complicates the possibility of immediate investment and production increases by U.S. oil companies.
Venezuela, recognized as a founding member of OPEC, boasts the largest proven crude oil reserves globally, totaling approximately 303 billion barrels, which accounts for about 17% of the world's total reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At its peak in the late 1990s, Caracas produced around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd). However, current production has drastically declined to about 800,000 bpd, as reported by energy consulting firm Kpler.
Currently, Chevron remains the only major U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, exporting roughly 140,000 bpd at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Kpler data.
The impact of Maduro's removal on oil prices remains uncertain in the short term. Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, noted that production might increase if a U.S.-supported government is established, potentially leading to the lifting of sanctions. However, he also cautioned that Maduro's ousting could result in supply disruptions in the near term.
In the long run, increased U.S. investment that boosts Venezuelan production could exert downward pressure on oil prices. Struyven mentioned that while a recovery in production is likely, it will be gradual and partial.
Industry executives with operations in Venezuela have indicated that it could require an annual investment of $10 billion to revive production levels. Furthermore, a stable security environment is crucial to restoring production to historic levels, according to Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Croft also noted that full sanctions relief could potentially restore several hundred thousand barrels of production within a year, provided there is an orderly transition of power. However, she warned that in a chaotic scenario similar to the upheaval experienced in Libya or Iraq, future production prospects could become even more uncertain.