On Monday, a significant agreement emerged from the White House regarding a potential bilateral meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This consensus, while appearing broadly unanimous, was soon overshadowed by the Russian response, raising questions about the feasibility of such a meeting.
Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov informed reporters that discussions had taken place about elevating the status of representatives from both Russia and Ukraine. However, he notably did not mention either leader by name, nor did he confirm that the representatives would hold high-level positions. This ambiguous communication from the Kremlin hints at a lack of readiness for a formal dialogue.
Later on, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov adopted a somewhat more conciliatory approach during a state TV interview, asserting that Russia remains open to various forms of dialogue, whether bilateral or trilateral. “We do not refuse any forms of work,” he stated, underlining the need for meticulous preparation for any high-level contacts. This suggests that the Kremlin is far from agreeing to a meeting between the two leaders.
The backdrop of this diplomatic maneuvering is a conflict that Putin instigated by unilaterally recognizing parts of Ukraine, specifically the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as independent. Putin has consistently claimed that Ukraine is an inseparable part of Russia’s history and culture, labeling its separation as a historical error. This complicated context makes any potential meeting between the two leaders fraught with tension.
As noted by Orysia Lutsevich, director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, if a meeting were to occur, Putin would be forced to confront the reality of negotiating with a leader he perceives as a “joke” from a “country that doesn’t exist.” This presents a significant challenge for Putin, who has propagated narratives that undermine Zelensky’s legitimacy, often referring to him as part of the “Kyiv regime.”
Moreover, the Kremlin has questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, fixating on the postponement of elections in Ukraine, which are deemed illegal under martial law. The latest “peace” memorandum from Russia stipulates that Ukraine must hold elections before any final peace agreement is reached, further complicating the diplomatic landscape.
Despite the complexities, some analysts believe that Putin could still agree to a meeting if he perceives it as strategically beneficial. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, pointed out that while Putin may not see a meeting with Zelensky as essential, he might reconsider if the conditions are favorable. “The key demands must be on the table, and Zelensky must be willing to discuss them,” she stated, highlighting the current stalemate.
As of now, Zelensky has firmly rejected key Russian demands, which include ceding control of territories that Ukraine currently holds. However, Stanovaya argues that Putin sees former President Donald Trump as a potential ally in persuading Ukraine to soften its stance. “Trump is seen as an enabler of the Russian vision for a settlement,” she remarked.
Trump's involvement in this diplomatic process has introduced another layer of complexity. On Monday, he announced on Truth Social that he had “begun the arrangements for a meeting” between Putin and Zelensky. However, during a subsequent appearance on Fox News, he seemed to realize that this was not a guaranteed outcome, emphasizing that the final decision rests with the two leaders on the ground.
With Putin currently showing no inclination to make concessions, he has experienced a surge in diplomatic visibility, including a grand summit in Alaska and the easing of previous demands for a ceasefire. In recent months, Russia has also escalated its military actions, including a notable increase in drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. As the situation develops, the only uncertainty remains around who Trump will hold accountable if this latest peace initiative falters.
