On June 19, 2023, a series of intensive airstrikes launched by Israel are aimed at more than just Iran’s nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. According to Israeli, Western, and regional officials, the overarching objective is to destabilize the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and bring it to the brink of collapse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to weaken Iran sufficiently to compel it to make fundamental concessions, including permanently halting its nuclear enrichment activities, curtailing its ballistic missile program, and ceasing support for militant groups throughout the region.
Netanyahu's strategy extends beyond mere military strikes; it is designed to exhaust the Iranian regime's capability to project power and maintain internal cohesion. As noted by a senior regional official, the campaign aims to erode the very foundations of Khamenei's government. Iran currently faces an existential crisis unlike any it has encountered since the 1979 Revolution. Even the harrowing Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988 did not pose such a direct threat to clerical rule.
As the most advanced military in the Middle East, Israel has the capability to strike anywhere in Iran using drones, advanced F-35 fighter jets, and sophisticated cyberwarfare technologies. Recent Israeli operations have expanded to target important government institutions, including police stations and state television headquarters in Tehran. According to four government and diplomatic sources, Netanyahu's administration is prepared for a sustained period of intense airstrikes, potentially lasting at least two weeks, depending on the success of eliminating Iran's missile stockpiles and launch capabilities.
Former Middle East envoy Dennis Ross believes that the intensified airstrikes are pressuring Iran and pushing it closer to the negotiating table. The attacks have reportedly eliminated significant members of Khamenei's inner circle, damaged crucial nuclear infrastructure, and targeted high-ranking security figures. Ross mentioned, "I do think the regime feels vulnerable," acknowledging that while Israel's primary goal is to cripple Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, the potential downfall of the regime would not be unwelcome to Israel.
Despite recent aggressive rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for Iran's unconditional surrender, Ross asserts that the U.S. would likely entertain a credible deal from Tehran if it guarantees the permanent cessation of enrichment activities. However, after six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations that yielded no concessions from Iran, Washington will seek firm assurances before supporting any ceasefire.
For Iran, a critical calculation is whether to allow the 86-year-old Khamenei to retreat without losing face. Two Iranian sources indicated that if Khamenei is stripped of dignity or his survival prospects, he may opt for all-out conflict. Recently, Khamenei warned in a televised address that any U.S. military intervention would result in "irreparable damage" to the U.S.
Netanyahu has openly suggested the possibility of regime change in Iran, promising the Iranian people that liberation is on the horizon. However, regional leaders fear that such a shift could lead to chaos, potentially igniting conflicts that spill across Iran's borders. Anwar Gargash, an advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates, cautioned against reshaping the region through force, suggesting that while some issues may be resolved, others could emerge.
Iran's longstanding strategy of conducting warfare through proxies has faltered due to Israeli military actions that intensified following the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. The regional Axis of Resistance has been severely weakened, with Hamas defeated in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon significantly impacted, and the Houthi militia in Yemen facing setbacks. Russia and China, traditionally seen as allies of Tehran, have remained largely uninvolved, leaving Iran increasingly isolated amid Western efforts to curtail its influence and nuclear ambitions.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, emphasized that Iran is not only contending with Israel but also with the U.S. and European powers. Although Sunni Arab Gulf states publicly denounce Israel's actions, leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may privately welcome a diminished Iranian threat, especially considering the past targeting of Gulf infrastructure by Iranian proxies.
Militarily, Iran finds itself with limited options. Israel has established aerial dominance over Iran, significantly damaging its air defenses and ballistic missile stockpiles. With approximately 400 missiles fired at Israel reportedly intercepted by its multi-layered defense system, the question arises: what remains for Iran to retaliate with? Without a ground invasion or internal uprising, a swift regime change in Iran seems unlikely, as there have been no major protests in Tehran despite widespread anger towards Israel for the ongoing attacks.
On the international stage, Trump has issued a veiled threat to Khamenei, indicating that U.S. intelligence knows his whereabouts but has no immediate plans for assassination. While Israel's recent success in eliminating key figures like Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has caused disarray in Lebanon, it is uncertain whether a similar outcome would occur with Khamenei. Current power dynamics suggest that the real influence lies with Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which remains deeply entrenched despite the loss of several commanders.
Should the Israeli campaign inadvertently lead to regime change, experts like Jonathan Panikoff warn that the aftermath may not usher in democracy but rather a more hardline administration. The potential for a "IRGC-istan" looms, suggesting that Israel could find itself embroiled in a protracted and intensified conflict. The next strategic move lies with Trump, who faces the decision of whether to intervene militarily to compel Iran towards negotiations.
Israeli officials acknowledge that to effectively dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, which are concealed in fortified sites like Fordow, they would require U.S. support for advanced bunker-busting munitions. Conversely, if Trump were to propose a ceasefire in exchange for a nuclear agreement, Netanyahu may acquiesce, provided he can assert that the Iranian threat has been significantly mitigated.
As tensions escalate, regional officials express concerns that a collapse of Khamenei's government could lead to fragmentation or civil war fueled by Iran's marginalized minorities, including Arabs, Kurds, and Christians. This scenario presents a dangerous power vacuum that no one in the region seems prepared to handle. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed these concerns at the recent G7 summit, highlighting the chaotic consequences of forced regime change in Iran. Historical precedents such as the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya serve as cautionary tales against such actions.
According to Vatanka, the fallout from a destabilized Iran would extend beyond its borders, potentially igniting unrest from Azerbaijan to Pakistan. The repercussions of Iran's collapse could destabilize fragile states and reignite dormant conflicts, creating a regional crisis of unprecedented scale.
