Number of Migrants Crossing the Channel Up by 56%
The number of migrants crossing the English Channel has seen a significant increase of 56% this year. In an effort to tackle this rising issue, the government has committed to disrupting the people-smuggling gangs responsible for these crossings. This initiative aligns with one of Labour's key manifesto pledges for 2024, which aims to dismantle these criminal networks. According to the latest Home Office figures, as of July 6, 2025, a total of 21,117 individuals have arrived in the UK via small boats, marking a notable rise compared to the same timeframe in 2024. Specifically, from July 2 to July 8, a total of 695 migrants arrived in the UK in just 11 small boats, according to the most recent data from the Home Office.
Discussions are ongoing regarding a proposed 'one in, one out' deal, which would allow the UK to return migrants to France. For every individual returned, France would send an asylum seeker to the UK, likely someone with family ties or a legitimate reason for seeking refuge. As of now, the specific numbers involved in this arrangement remain uncertain, and it is unclear if the final details will be finalized this week. Both nations have pledged to develop new and innovative solutions aimed at creating deterrents to dismantle the business model of the smuggling gangs operating across the Channel.
In addition to addressing migration, the UK and France are set to sign a defense agreement that includes plans to procure more long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles. These advanced weapons, described as highly lethal in government announcements, are manufactured in Stevenage. Both countries will also collaborate on developing a successor to the Storm Shadow missile, a project that is expected to support approximately 1,300 jobs across the UK. The long-range missile, known as Scalp in France, is particularly effective for penetrating fortified structures and has been utilized by Ukraine against Russian targets.
As the joint summit approaches, both Sir Keir Starmer and President Macron have expressed a strong desire to finalize an agreement to tackle the issue of small boat crossings in the Channel. Although specific details of the potential deal have not been disclosed, various reports suggest that the UK may implement a pilot scheme to return 50 migrants per week to France. This would mean that approximately one in 17 migrants arriving by small boats would be sent back to France, according to calculations from the Times. In exchange, the UK would accept a corresponding number of asylum seekers with family connections in the UK.
However, there is some opposition to this potential deal, with the Sun newspaper characterizing it as a “kick in the Gauls.” Conversely, the Guardian reports that a deal may not be reached this week, citing significant hurdles still to be addressed by both parties just hours before the summit.
During the summit, the UK and France are reiterating their commitment to implement new strategies to combat the smuggling gangs operating in the Channel. The proposed deal includes the return of migrants to France, with an equal exchange of asylum seekers accepted into the UK. Additionally, both countries will sign a declaration concerning their independent nuclear deterrents, indicating potential future coordination in the face of threats. Collaborative efforts will also extend to missile development, air defenses, and continued support for Ukraine.
As the final day of President Macron's state visit unfolds, he and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer are expected to lead discussions aimed at reaching a resolution to the small boat crossing crisis. The summit is not only crucial for migration strategies but will also address defense commitments, particularly in light of the ongoing situation in Ukraine. Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as the summit progresses.
