The papal conclave is underway as the 133 cardinals, responsible for electing the next pope, have entered the Sistine Chapel. This significant event marks the beginning of the process to select a successor to Pope Francis. For those interested, a live stream video from the Vatican is available below, showcasing the chimney atop the Sistine Chapel. The smoke signals from this chimney will announce the election results: white smoke signifies the selection of a new pope, while black smoke indicates that a two-thirds majority has not yet been achieved, necessitating further voting rounds.
On Wednesday morning, the cardinals gathered at St. Peter's Basilica for a ceremonial Mass. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the dean of the College of Cardinals, led the prayers, expressing hope that the cardinals would unite in their decision on the pope needed for our time. This marked a poignant moment before the cardinals retreated into the seclusion of the Sistine Chapel.
The term conclave derives from the Latin phrase "cum clave," meaning "with a key." This aptly describes the isolation and secrecy surrounding the election of a new pope. During the conclave, cardinal electors are entirely cut off from the outside world. The process officially begins with the pronouncement of "Extra Omnes," a Latin phrase commanding all non-electors to leave the Sistine Chapel. Following this, the cardinals commence their sacred and confidential voting to determine the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
Voting can commence as soon as this afternoon. If no candidate garners the necessary two-thirds majority on the initial ballot, the voting will continue the next day. Cardinals are allowed to cast up to four ballots each day—two in the morning and two in the afternoon—until a consensus is reached. After each voting session, the ballots are incinerated in a special stove within the Sistine Chapel. The resulting smoke serves as a signal: black smoke indicates no decision has been made, while white smoke confirms the election of a new pope. To ensure clarity, chemical cartridges are utilized, and bells will toll across St. Peter's Square to announce the new pontiff. This moment culminates with the iconic proclamation, "Habemus Papam!" (We have a pope!), as the new leader addresses the public from the balcony overlooking the square.
As of Tuesday, betting platform Polymarket has provided insights into the favorites to become the new pope based on a total trading volume exceeding $17.6 million. The frontrunners include:
Pietro Parolin – 26% likelihood, with over $1.1 million in bets. Luis Antonio Tagle – 20%, with $1.26 million wagered. Matteo Zuppi – 11%, with $837,000 in trading volume. Pierbattista Pizzaballa – 9%, with $861,000 wagered.These four candidates are the only ones with more than a 10% chance of winning, establishing a clear hierarchy among the favorites heading into the conclave. Other notable names, such as Péter Erdő, Peter Turkson, and Jean-Marc Aveline, fall within the single-digit range, indicating a significant drop-off in perceived viability beyond the top contenders.
Voting in the conclave is restricted to cardinals under the age of 80, although the formal cap on electors is set at 120. In practice, this limit is often exceeded, with 135 cardinals eligible this time. While cardinals over 80 can participate in preliminary discussions, they are not permitted to vote. Interestingly, any baptized male Catholic can theoretically be elected pope, although since 1378, the position has consistently gone to a cardinal, sometimes even one over the age of 80.
The countries with the most electors are as follows:
Italy: 17 United States: 10 Brazil: 7 France and Spain: 5 each Argentina, Canada, India, Poland, and Portugal: 4 eachA regional breakdown of the electors reveals:
Europe: 53 (with one elector from Spain opting out, the number is expected to be 52) Asia (including the Middle East): 23 Africa: 18 (with one elector from Kenya not participating, reducing the number to 17) South America: 17 North America: 16 (10 from the U.S., 4 from Canada, and 2 from Mexico) Central America: 4 Oceania: 4 (one each from Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga)Throughout the conclave, the electors will reside at the Domus Sanctae Marthae, the Vatican guesthouse. Due to the large number of participants, overflow accommodations may be utilized.
The framework for the conclave largely follows the rules established by St. John Paul II in 1996. While Pope Benedict XVI made amendments to these guidelines twice, the core procedures remain consistent. Notably, Benedict reinforced the requirement for a two-thirds vote to elect a pope, eliminating the possibility of a simple majority—even after prolonged stalemates. Although Pope Francis did not alter the voting process, he appointed 108 of the 135 eligible cardinals, potentially influencing the Church's future direction.
According to current Catholic doctrine, only men can become priests, based on the belief that Jesus chose male apostles. Consequently, women are excluded from both the priesthood and eligibility for the papacy, as well as from participating in the conclave.
Secrecy remains paramount during the conclave. Pope Benedict XVI reaffirmed rules that impose automatic excommunication on anyone who discloses the proceedings within the conclave. Liturgical aides and secretaries must take an oath of absolute secrecy, explicitly banning the use of recording devices.
The longest conclave in history occurred between November 1268 and September 1271, lasting an astonishing 1,006 days. This drawn-out process to elect a successor to Pope Clement IV took place in Viterbo, Italy, and left a lasting impact on Church history. The term "conclave" itself originated from this episode, as townspeople locked the indecisive cardinals inside the meeting hall and even removed the roof to expedite the decision-making process, ultimately resulting in the election of Pope Gregory X.
Conversely, the shortest conclave occurred before 1274, when papal elections could be remarkably quick, sometimes concluding on the same day as a predecessor's death. Following reforms under Pope Gregory X, a minimum waiting period was instituted, which has evolved to 15 days. Despite these guidelines, conclaves have varied in duration. For instance, Pope Francis was elected in 2013 after five ballots, while Pope Benedict XVI was chosen in 2005 on the fourth ballot.
In conclusion, the papal conclave remains one of the most unpredictable and significant events in the Catholic Church, where unity, divine guidance, and human politics converge behind closed doors, shaping the future of the Church.
