Eight months into his second term, President Trump has made a declaration regarding Ukraine that closely mirrors the sentiments expressed by his predecessor, President Joseph R. Biden Jr.. On Tuesday, Trump asserted that with the right mix of courage, ingenuity, and NATO weapons, Ukraine could potentially force Russia to retreat from the territory it has occupied over the past three and a half years of brutal conflict. However, a closer examination of Trump's comments reveals a deeper desire to distance himself from the ongoing Ukraine conflict, especially after struggling to bring President Vladimir V. Putin to the negotiating table.
Mr. Trump’s sudden shift in position during the recent U.N. meetings in New York has left many questioning his true intentions. His foreign policy views, as noted by former aides, often stem from personal feelings of disrespect rather than strategic analysis. Consequently, it is challenging to predict whether Trump will maintain this stance or revert to a previous position. His advisers appeared taken aback by his assertion that Ukraine, after enduring years of struggle, could now reclaim the one-fifth of its territory currently occupied by Russian forces.
On the same day Trump made his announcement on Ukraine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also serving as acting national security adviser, reiterated the administration's longstanding position that the war in Ukraine “cannot end militarily,” emphasizing that it would ultimately conclude at a negotiating table. White House officials have not publicly commented on Trump's new strategy, but a senior official suggested that during the Biden administration, the U.S. had limited options, primarily funding Ukraine indefinitely without any negotiations with Russia.
Experts who have closely monitored Trump's approach to Russia and Ukraine suggest that his recent remarks may not signify substantial changes in policy. Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for New American Security and a former aide to Senator John McCain, stated, “The reversal is one of analysis and not policy.” He noted that Trump seems to oscillate between extreme views, previously suggesting Ukraine could not win due to a lack of leverage and now claiming it can regain all its territory because Russia is merely a “paper tiger.”
Unimpressed by Trump's comments, American allies at the United Nations expressed skepticism. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pointed out that Putin only responds to significant pressure from the United States. According to a senior British official, Trump’s inclination to stand on the sidelines is unlikely to alter the current status quo. Additionally, Senator Mitch McConnell, a long-time supporter of Ukraine, welcomed Trump’s apparent support but criticized his administration for undermining that support through mixed messages.
McConnell's statement highlighted concerns regarding Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his aides suggesting reductions in military training and assistance to countries bordering Russia. This has led some experts to advocate focusing on U.S. spending rather than presidential rhetoric to truly gauge American support for Ukraine. Laura Cooper, a former senior Pentagon official, emphasized that while there was once a balance in U.S. and European security assistance to Ukraine, the U.S. share has now diminished significantly.
As Trump departed from New York, it became evident that President Zelensky of Ukraine remained in dire need of financial resources, technology, intelligence, and troop support for a war that has now dragged on for nearly as long as the United States' involvement in World War II. In his address to the United Nations, Zelensky highlighted the deterioration of international law and the ineffectiveness of global institutions, emphasizing that security relies not on resolutions but on “friends and weapons.”
Zelensky warned that if Russia is allowed to succeed in Ukraine, the repercussions could extend far beyond its borders. He stated, “Stopping Russia now is cheaper than wondering who will be the first to create a simple drone carrying a nuclear weapon.” His comments underscore the urgency of continued support for Ukraine and the potential consequences of a weakened international response to Russian aggression.
