The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued an emergency directive to ground all McDonnell Douglas MD-11 aircraft following recent incidents involving UPS and FedEx. This decision comes after a tragic crash of a UPS MD-11 shortly after takeoff in Louisville, Kentucky, last week, resulting in the loss of 14 lives. The FAA has determined that an unsafe condition may exist across this model, necessitating this immediate grounding.
Although the MD-11s constitute a small fraction of the cargo fleets of UPS and FedEx, aviation experts warn that prolonged grounding could significantly impact holiday deliveries. The ongoing investigation into the crash has prompted Boeing to recommend the suspension of all MD-11 flight operations as a precautionary measure.
UPS and FedEx have indicated that they are preparing contingency plans to mitigate any disruption to their delivery services. While specific strategies remain undisclosed, some experts suggest that cargo may be redirected to passenger planes, trains, and trucks to maintain operational flow. Jeremy Tancredi, a partner at West Monroe consulting, noted that the absence of 26 MD-11 planes during peak shipping season could be detrimental to delivery timelines.
The MD-11 was first introduced in 1986, with commercial service commencing in December 1990. The last of these aircraft was manufactured in 2000, according to Boeing records. As part of a modernization effort, UPS announced plans in 2023 to replace its MD-11 fleet with more efficient Boeing 767 aircraft. FedEx, on the other hand, has retired 20 MD-11s over the past three years and aims to phase out the remaining models by fiscal year 2032.
Currently, UPS operates 26 MD-11s out of a total of over 500 aircraft in its fleet. Meanwhile, FedEx has 28 MD-11s among its approximately 700 aircraft. Additionally, Western Global Airlines also utilizes MD-11s, although they have not yet responded to inquiries regarding the situation.
As the holiday season approaches, delivery volumes are expected to increase by 5% compared to last year's figures, with an estimated 2.3 billion packages projected to be shipped during this peak period. Experts like Mike Stengel from AeroDynamic Advisory emphasize that the length of the grounding will be critical. If the MD-11s remain out of service for more than a week or two, it could lead to significant delays in package deliveries.
Despite the FAA's recent directive to reduce flights amid a government shutdown, Stengel reassures that cargo carriers are generally insulated from these restrictions. This is primarily because the FAA's caps on flight activity tend to affect daytime operations, while UPS and FedEx typically conduct their flights during the night when air traffic control resources are less strained.
In light of the current situation, Tancredi advises customers to shop early for holiday gifts. With the rail network and ground transportation systems gearing up to handle increased capacity, there is still time to place online orders and ensure timely delivery of holiday packages. Companies are adapting to the changing landscape, and early action can help mitigate any unforeseen delays.