On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its decision to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen. This development follows a significant ultimatum from Saudi Arabia, which called for the UAE troops to depart the country within 24 hours. The urgency of this withdrawal was underscored by a recent Saudi-led coalition airstrike targeting the southern Yemeni port of Mukalla, aimed at what Riyadh claimed was a UAE-linked weapons shipment.
The airstrike marks a notable escalation in the already strained relationship between the two Gulf powers. Once seen as the twin pillars of regional security, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have experienced a growing divergence in their interests, ranging from oil quotas to geopolitical influence. On the same day of the airstrike, Saudi Arabia underscored its national security, alleging that the UAE had coerced Yemen's southern separatists into military actions that encroached upon Saudi borders.
This statement marked Saudi Arabia's strongest condemnation of the UAE amid a deteriorating relationship. The two nations, which once united against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen, are now facing an apparent rift. Disagreements intensified as the UAE began supporting southern separatists who sought self-rule, while Saudi Arabia remained loyal to Yemen's internationally recognized government. This divergence has led to an open fracture within the coalition.
In a dramatic turn of events, the head of Yemen's Saudi-backed presidential council issued a 24-hour ultimatum for Emirati forces to vacate the area. In response to the airstrike, the UAE expressed surprise, asserting that the attacked shipment did not contain any weapons and was intended for its own forces.
Furthermore, Yemen's presidential council head, Rashad al-Alimi, announced the cancellation of a defense pact with the UAE, accusing the Emirati government of exacerbating tensions in Yemen through its support of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Al-Alimi stated, "Unfortunately, it has been definitively confirmed that the United Arab Emirates pressured and directed the STC to undermine and rebel against the authority of the state through military escalation."
In light of these developments, the UAE emphasized the need for responsible dialogue to navigate the situation, advocating for actions based on reliable facts and existing coordination among the involved parties. The fallout from these events has also impacted financial markets, with major stock indexes in the Gulf experiencing declines.
As both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are significant players in the OPEC oil exporters' group, their disagreement could pose challenges to consensus on oil output decisions. With OPEC+ members scheduled to meet online this Sunday, delegates have indicated that they expect to maintain their current policy without changes to first-quarter production.
This unfolding situation highlights the complexities of regional politics in the Middle East and the potential implications for global oil markets as the UAE and Saudi Arabia navigate their diverging interests in Yemen.