Tropical Storm Melissa is currently making its way northwest with sustained winds nearing 70 mph, just below the threshold to become the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic season. As of Friday evening, the storm was located approximately 165 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Meteorologists are warning of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides that are anticipated across southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic, and Jamaica throughout the weekend and into early next week.
Forecasts indicate that the wind shear surrounding Melissa is expected to decrease on Saturday, which could lead to significant strengthening over the weekend. As Melissa moves slowly through the Caribbean Sea from Saturday into Sunday, it will benefit from very warm waters and diminished wind shear, potentially allowing it to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane.
Hurricane conditions are anticipated in southern Haiti later on Saturday, with the storm reaching Jamaica later that day and continuing into Sunday morning. By Sunday, Melissa is projected to approach Jamaica as a major hurricane, with winds possibly exceeding 110 mph. The storm is expected to linger near the island from Sunday through at least Tuesday, resulting in a multi-day event of heavy rainfall that could lead to catastrophic flash flooding and landslides.
In addition to the risk of flooding, Jamaica is bracing for extensive damage from strong winds and life-threatening storm surge. Experts warn that this storm may become the strongest hurricane to strike Jamaica in more than 35 years, surpassing Hurricane Gilbert, a Category 4 storm that impacted the island in 1988. With a slower movement across Jamaica and a more impactful approach from the south, Melissa could potentially exhibit greater effects than past hurricanes.
Hurricane warnings are currently in effect for Jamaica, while hurricane watches are active for Haiti’s southwestern peninsula, stretching from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. Rainfall totals are projected to reach between 10 to 20 inches across parts of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with localized higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected across the remainder of Haiti and into the southern Dominican Republic, raising the likelihood of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides in these regions over the weekend into early next week.
After passing north of Jamaica, Tropical Storm Melissa is anticipated to cross southern Cuba and reach the central or southern Bahamas by Wednesday or Thursday. Following this, the storm is expected to turn northwest toward the central Atlantic later next week, but the focus remains on its impending impact on Jamaica and surrounding areas.
