The ongoing conflict on the Thai-Cambodian border has intensified, pitting a longstanding ally of the United States, Thailand, against a relatively young military force closely aligned with China, Cambodia. This territorial dispute has its roots in the colonial past when France delineated the borders over a century ago. Since the fighting erupted on Thursday, more than a dozen lives have been lost, and over 100,000 civilians have been evacuated from the affected regions.
In the realm of military capabilities, Thailand's forces significantly overshadow those of Cambodia. With approximately 361,000 active-duty personnel across various military branches, Thailand possesses three times the troop strength of Cambodia. The arsenal available to Thailand is also notably advanced, comprising weaponry that Cambodia can only aspire to possess. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Thailand boasts one of the best-equipped air forces in Southeast Asia, further solidifying its military prowess.
A recent ranking by the Lowy Institute highlights this disparity, placing Thailand 14th among 27 regional nations while ranking Cambodia at 23rd. The economic factors contributing to this military gap are evident, as Thailand's GDP is more than ten times larger than Cambodia's and its population is four times greater. Historically, Thailand has been less affected by the conflicts that ravaged the region in the latter half of the 20th century, allowing it to maintain a more robust military.
Thailand's military has been deeply intertwined with its political landscape, often serving as a defender of the monarchy against various threats. This relationship has led to a history of military coups, with the military seizing power 20 times since 1932, as noted by the CIA World Factbook. As a treaty ally of the United States since the signing of the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty in 1954, Thailand has benefited from extensive military support, particularly during the Vietnam War.
Today, Thailand is classified as a major non-NATO ally of the United States, granting it unique advantages, including access to advanced weaponry and participation in joint military exercises like the Cobra Gold, the longest-running international military exercise worldwide. Despite its strong historical ties with the U.S., Thailand has pursued a more neutral military policy in recent years, expanding its relationships with other nations, particularly China, to diversify its arms suppliers.
In contrast, Cambodia's military is relatively young, established in 1993 through the merger of communist and non-communist forces. Cambodia's primary defense relationships are with China and Vietnam, with China emerging as a significant supplier of military equipment. Notably, China has developed the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia, strategically located on the Gulf of Thailand, capable of accommodating Chinese aircraft carriers.
The military relationship between Cambodia and China has been solidified through joint military exercises, such as the recent Golden Dragon, which showcased the growing military collaboration between the two nations. However, Cambodia's military capabilities remain limited, lacking the ability to design and manufacture modern military equipment independently.
Thailand's Royal Air Force is significantly augmented by years of U.S. support, featuring modern aircraft such as Swedish Gripen fighter jets and numerous older U.S.-made jets. In stark contrast, Cambodia lacks a combat-capable air force. On the ground, Thailand's military is equipped with advanced battle tanks, including modern Chinese VT-4 tanks, while Cambodia's inventory consists largely of outdated Chinese and Soviet models.
In terms of artillery, Thailand surpasses Cambodia with over 600 artillery pieces, including advanced 155mm weapons. Cambodia, on the other hand, has only a limited number of artillery pieces at its disposal, underscoring the imbalance in military resources.
As the conflict unfolds, military analyst Carl Schuster notes that while Thailand holds significant numerical and qualitative advantages, Cambodia possesses the tactical advantage of terrain access along the disputed border. Reports of Cambodian forces laying landmines and booby traps suggest that Thailand may rely more heavily on air power and long-range weaponry to navigate the challenging landscape.
In conclusion, while Thailand's military superiority is evident, the evolving dynamics of the conflict highlight the complexities of regional military strategies and alliances. The outcome of this conflict remains uncertain as both nations grapple with historical grievances and contemporary military capabilities.
