As Hurricane Melissa makes its way through the Caribbean, Jamaica could be on the brink of experiencing one of the most powerful landfall storms in its recorded history. Forecasters predict that Melissa will strike the island as an “upper-end” Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. This alarming forecast raises concerns among residents and authorities alike, as the impact of such a storm could be devastating.
The National Hurricane Center has been tracking storms since 1850, and according to its records, Jamaica has only encountered one Category 4 storm in its history. That storm, known as Hurricane Gilbert, hit the island 37 years ago in 1988. Gilbert, often referred to as “Wild Gilbert”, was catastrophic, displacing an estimated 500,000 people—approximately one-fifth of the island’s population—and resulting in 45 fatalities. The storm's aftermath saw Jamaica's power and water systems shut down, with winds reaching dangerous speeds of 125 miles per hour.
In a retrospective analysis, the Hurricane Center described the destruction caused by Gilbert as grim evidence of the life-threatening effects and profound economic disruption that a storm of such magnitude can unleash.
As of Sunday morning, Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, indicated that Hurricane Melissa is expected to have wind speeds at the upper limits of a Category 4 storm as it approaches Jamaica. This raises significant concerns for the island, which has faced similar threats in the past.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, three Category 4 hurricanes have come dangerously close to Jamaica. In 2024, Hurricane Beryl skimmed the island's southern coast, unleashing damaging winds, storm surge, and flooding that resulted in over $200 million in damages. Similarly, Hurricane Dean in 2007 and Hurricane Ivan in 2004 both tracked near Jamaica, causing $300 million and nearly $600 million in damages, respectively. Hurricane Ivan also tragically led to 17 fatalities.
Notably, Hurricane Allen, which approached Jamaica in 1980 as a Category 5 but weakened to a Category 4 before nearing the island, caused significant destruction without making landfall. This storm resulted in $100 million in damages and claimed eight lives. Furthermore, even storms categorized below Category 4 have wreaked havoc on the island. For example, Hurricane Charlie in August 1951 was deemed Jamaica's “worst hurricane disaster of the century.” The storm produced winds exceeding 110 miles per hour and dumped 17 inches of rain, leading to around $50 million in damages (over $620 million today) and resulting in the deaths of 152 people.
Charlie left approximately 25,000 residents homeless and remained the last hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica until Gilbert struck 37 years later. Additionally, a Category 3 hurricane in 1912 impacted the island with peak sustained winds of 115 miles per hour. A re-analysis by the Hurricane Center noted that the most destructive aspect of this storm was the rainfall that caused flash flooding, particularly on the northwest side of the island. The storm obliterated several towns and resulted in a tragic loss of at least 100 lives.
As Jamaica prepares for the potential impact of Hurricane Melissa, the island's history with powerful storms serves as a sobering reminder of the threats posed by natural disasters. Authorities and residents are urged to take necessary precautions to safeguard lives and property as they brace for the storm's arrival.
