Recent Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear sites have caused significant damage to some aboveground research facilities and infrastructure. However, experts indicate that these strikes have not successfully eliminated the thousands of centrifuges buried deep underground that are essential for enriching near-weapons-grade uranium. Additionally, the hundreds of pounds of enriched material already produced remain largely intact, according to a diverse array of nonproliferation and Iranian experts.
In a national address, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that the Iranian nuclear program constitutes an existential threat to Israel, which necessitates decisive action. “We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” he stated. Nevertheless, reports from both Israeli and Iranian sources, along with satellite imagery, suggest that no irreversible damage has been inflicted on the core components of Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Richard Nephew, a former lead U.S. negotiator with Iran and current fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, emphasized the importance of the Fordow facility, stating, “Until I know that Fordow is gone... I consider us on the clock.” Located approximately 100 miles south of Tehran, Fordow is one of Iran's two major underground enrichment facilities, with the other being Natanz. Experts believe that the only conventional munition capable of significantly damaging these deeply buried sites is the U.S. Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound precision-guided bomb that Israel does not possess.
Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, noted that while Israel can inflict damage on key Iranian nuclear facilities, it cannot entirely destroy hardened sites like Fordow without U.S. military assistance. Despite the Trump administration's previous backing of Israel against Iranian threats, Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the recent airstrikes were “unilateral,” and no U.S. involvement occurred.
According to Tzachi Hanegbi, head of Israel’s National Security Council, the Iranian nuclear program “cannot be destroyed through kinetic means.” He suggested that the U.S. could facilitate a more effective resolution through diplomatic means rather than military strikes. David Albright, an expert on Iran's nuclear program, assessed that the initial airstrikes did not prioritize the outright destruction of Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Instead, the focus appeared to be on incapacitating Iranian military leadership and air defenses.
Despite reported explosions near Fordow, it appears that the main installation remains unscathed. Eric Brewer from the Nuclear Threat Initiative stated, “If Fordow is still operating... that timeline hasn’t changed,” referring to the estimated time Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb. The damage inflicted on Natanz included the destruction of several aboveground facilities and significant damage to the electrical systems, but these actions did not significantly hinder Iran's long-term nuclear breakout capacities.
Following the strikes, multiple military sites, including a uranium metal production facility in Isfahan and a military complex in Parchin, were targeted. However, the critical centrifuge and uranium storage facilities seem to remain intact. Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA official, speculated that Israel may have future plans for Fordow, which could involve special operations or cyberattacks. The uncertainty surrounding these strategies highlights the complexity of the situation.
The aftermath of the Israeli attacks could have significant ramifications for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Director General Rafael Grossi announced that inspectors at Fordow and Natanz have been withdrawn for safety reasons. Davenport remarked that inspections are crucial for monitoring Iran's nuclear activities, and the recent airstrikes have jeopardized the possibility of resuming those inspections in the near future.
Moreover, Israel's actions might embolden factions within the Iranian government advocating for a more aggressive approach towards developing nuclear weapons. Jim Walsh from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology noted that the political momentum may now shift towards those in favor of pursuing a nuclear arsenal. This shift could have profound implications for regional stability and international relations in the future.
