Iranian officials have expressed a willingness to resume nuclear talks with the United States, contingent upon a cessation of Israeli military actions. This information was relayed by two officials familiar with the situation on Monday, as violence between Israel and Iran escalated for a fourth consecutive day. One official stated that Tehran's position is clear: "We never left the negotiating table, but no negotiations while we are under fire."
Efforts to facilitate a ceasefire are being led by Oman and Qatar, reflecting a growing concern among Persian Gulf states about the intensifying conflict on their borders. This violence began last Friday when Israel initiated strikes against Iranian targets. Due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, both officials requested anonymity.
The ongoing conflict has ignited fears in the Persian Gulf, with the region's proximity to the violence and the haunting memories of previous wars fueling anxiety. Analysts warn that if the conflict persists, the Gulf may inevitably become embroiled in the fighting. President Donald Trump indicated on Monday that he has received signals from Iran expressing a desire to end hostilities, though he did not clarify whether he had urged Israel to halt its attacks or if the U.S. intended to intervene militarily.
The recent military exchanges have resulted in significant casualties, with reports indicating at least 224 deaths in Iran and 24 in Israel since the onset of the conflict. On Monday, Iranian missiles targeted the port city of Haifa, while Israeli forces retaliated by hitting Iranian missile batteries and the headquarters of Iranian state television.
Bader al-Saif, a history professor at Kuwait University, emphasized the dire consequences of the conflict, stating, "We have been working for years to avert such a showdown, because we will be the ultimate victims." As panic spreads throughout the region, many residents have begun stockpiling supplies in anticipation of further escalation.
Initially, some Gulf states had hoped to avoid the repercussions of the conflict, having assured Iran of their non-participation in military actions against it. However, as Israel broadens its target list, Gulf nations are left questioning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's intentions. Israel's war objectives have shifted from degrading Iran's nuclear program to potentially advocating for regime change.
Analysts are also considering the possibility of U.S. military involvement alongside Israel, a scenario that could result in catastrophic consequences for Iran's population of 90 million and the broader region. Hamoud Abu Talib warned in the Saudi daily Okaz that if the U.S. becomes embroiled in the conflict, it could lead to a phase "worse than any the region has ever experienced."
The Trump administration remains a key player, supplying Israel with weapons and assisting in defense against Iranian missile attacks. While some of Trump's allies are calling for stronger U.S. intervention, the president has also expressed interest in a potential nuclear deal with Iran, balancing his support for Israel's military actions with a desire for negotiation.
On Monday, during the Group of Seven summit in Canada, Trump confirmed that mediators had indicated Iran was interested in dialogue but emphasized that discussions should have occurred sooner. U.S. officials revealed that the Pentagon is increasing its military presence in the Middle East and Europe, dispatching additional aircraft to safeguard U.S. interests.
Despite the unpredictability of Trump's administration, there is a prevailing belief among Gulf states that the president's recent pledges for stability and peace in the region are genuine. Recent diplomatic engagements, such as Saudi Arabia's defense minister visiting Tehran, indicate a thaw in relations, with Riyadh urging Iran to negotiate regarding its nuclear program.
Experts highlight that a weakened Iran could benefit the region, especially given Tehran's history of funding regional proxies. However, Israel's increasing military assertiveness poses risks to the stability of the region, particularly for the Palestinian territories. The expectation that Iran's government would collapse remains unrealistic, suggesting that once hostilities cease, Iran is likely to focus inward rather than on regional expansion.
As tensions rise, Gulf authorities are working to reassure citizens. Qatar's Ministry of Environment and Climate Change reported that radiation levels remain normal, while Kuwait's army confirmed that missiles launched towards Israel do not pose a threat to its airspace.
In conclusion, the current situation presents both challenges and opportunities for the Gulf states. As the conflict unfolds, the interconnectedness of the region underscores the need for a unified approach to ensure stability and prevent further escalation.
