The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are committed to providing daily updates and analysis on the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. Our morning updates focus on immediate developments, such as exchanges of fire, while our evening updates provide a more comprehensive overview of events from the past 24 hours, refining the discussions from earlier in the day.
Recent military actions have intensified, with Israel continuing its strike campaign against Iranian military assets. This campaign primarily targets Iranian air defenses, missile forces, and nuclear sites, including a facility in Esfahan known for producing centrifuges. These operations have been pivotal in disrupting Iran's military capabilities.
In a significant escalation, an Iranian drone struck a populated area in Israel for the first time during this conflict. However, this incident does not indicate a substantial breakdown in Israeli air defenses, which remain robust despite some isolated failures. Integrated air defense systems, by their nature, are not infallible, and occasional impacts from projectiles are to be expected.
Iran has also engaged in ballistic missile attacks against Israel, launching five missiles, all of which were intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). As part of Israel's ongoing air campaign, the IDF conducted airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center on June 21, targeting facilities associated with centrifuge production. These strikes reportedly caused significant damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities, which are critical for uranium enrichment.
The IDF has previously targeted this facility on June 13, inflicting damage to various components, including a uranium conversion plant and an enriched uranium metal processing facility. The degradation of Iran’s nuclear program is a central objective for Israel, as it seeks to inhibit Iran's ability to weaponize its nuclear capabilities.
In a strategic move, the IDF has successfully eliminated two senior commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Quds Force. The IDF killed Behnam Shahriari, the commander of IRGC Unit 190, which is responsible for the transfer of weapons to allies such as Hezbollah. Shahriari's death is significant, as he was instrumental in facilitating financial support and resources for these operations.
Additionally, the IDF targeted and killed Saeed Izadi, the commander of the Quds Force Palestine Corps, who was closely linked to Hamas and played a critical role in facilitating Iranian funding for the group. His involvement in the planning of attacks against Israel underscores the ongoing complexity of Iran's military operations in the region.
The IDF has reported that it has intercepted 99% of the 470 drones launched by Iran at Israel since June 12, showcasing the effectiveness of Israeli air defense systems. However, an Iranian drone successfully struck a home in Beit Shean, marking the first confirmed instance of an effective drone strike since the escalation of hostilities began. This incident serves as a reminder of the persistent threat posed by Iranian drone capabilities.
Despite these challenges, the overall effectiveness of Israeli air defenses remains high. The relatively slow speed of Iranian drones allows Israeli forces to prepare and respond effectively, mitigating the impact of such attacks. The IDF's ability to intercept a vast majority of incoming threats demonstrates a significant operational advantage in the ongoing conflict.
The situation between Iran and Israel continues to evolve, with military engagements intensifying and significant strategic operations being carried out by both sides. The ongoing airstrikes, missile attacks, and targeted eliminations of key military figures highlight the complexities of this conflict, which remains a focal point of regional security concerns.
