LONDON -- Ukrainian and Russian representatives are set to convene in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, marking their first meeting since the early days of Russia's three-year invasion of Ukraine. Despite an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a face-to-face discussion, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the talks. This meeting holds significant symbolic value as Istanbul has previously been a focal point for diplomatic efforts amid the ongoing conflict.
Istanbul has been crucial in the diplomatic landscape of the war. In March 2022, the city hosted negotiations that led to the Istanbul Communiqué, a framework aimed at establishing a peace agreement. This initial proposal involved Ukraine accepting a stance of permanent neutrality, effectively relinquishing its aspirations to join NATO in exchange for robust security guarantees. However, as the war intensified and reports of alleged Russian war crimes surfaced, these early peace initiatives fell apart, undermined by distrust and escalating violence.
In addition to peace talks, Istanbul recently facilitated the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which operated from 2022 to 2023. This agreement, supported by Turkey and the United Nations, allowed for the safe export of grain and agricultural products from Ukrainian and Russian ports, crucial for global food supplies amidst the hostilities.
The Russian delegation will be led by Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin aide who previously spearheaded talks in 2022. He will be accompanied by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, and Igor Kostyukov, chief of Russia's military intelligence agency. This high-level representation underscores the significance of the discussions, despite Putin's absence.
The last in-person meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred in France in 2019 during a session of the Normandy Format, aimed at resolving the conflict sparked by Russia's annexation of Crimea and subsequent support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. Zelenskyy has expressed reluctance to engage with any Russian representatives other than Putin, emphasizing the president's central role in the decision-making process regarding the conflict.
Zelenskyy is expected to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on the same day as the talks. Former President Donald Trump, who has been advocating for a ceasefire and a peace agreement, expressed hope for positive outcomes from the discussions. Upon his arrival in Qatar, Trump stated, "I think we're having some pretty good news coming out of there today and maybe tomorrow and maybe Friday."
The U.S. delegation to Turkey includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. Speaking at a NATO foreign ministers gathering in Istanbul, Rubio emphasized that there is "no military solution" to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that the resolution must come through diplomatic means. He highlighted the urgency of reaching an agreement to minimize further casualties and destruction.
Putin's proposal for the talks arose following Ukraine's demand, supported by leaders from France, Germany, the U.K., and Poland, for a full 30-day ceasefire to facilitate negotiations. Trump's endorsement of this plan adds another layer to the diplomatic dynamics. However, experts like Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, caution against high expectations for immediate breakthroughs, noting that Russia aims to maintain pressure on Ukraine.
As the world watches the developments from Istanbul, the stakes are high for both Ukraine and Russia. The outcome of these discussions could shape the future of the conflict, impacting not only the two nations involved but also the broader geopolitical landscape. With both sides maneuvering carefully to avoid blame for any failures, the coming days will be critical in determining the path forward for peace in the region.
