A once-in-a-generation extreme weather event is set to unfold starting Wednesday, bringing a significant tornado outbreak that will persist into the weekend. This hazardous weather pattern will result in four consecutive days of severe flooding, impacting millions across the Midwest and Southern regions of the United States.
On Wednesday, wind gusts could reach up to 50 mph for over 65 million Americans across 13 states, stretching from Texas to Ohio. A tornado watch is currently in place for Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and northwest Missouri as of Wednesday morning. Reports indicate that at least two tornadoes have already touched down in Missouri, highlighting the severity of this weather system.
Forecasters have issued a rare high risk (level 5 of 5) warning for destructive storms, which poses the threat of strong, long-track tornadoes with an EF3+ rating. This area is also expected to experience very large hail, potentially reaching the size of tennis balls, along with destructive winds exceeding 70 mph. The high-risk zone spans from Jonesboro, Arkansas, through Memphis, Tennessee, to Paducah, Kentucky, lasting from Wednesday afternoon until midnight. It's important to note that a level 5 risk is issued on less than 1% of days, making the likelihood of a tornado occurring in this area three times greater compared to regions under a level 1 risk.
While tornadoes pose a significant threat, the most alarming danger stems from the anticipated rainfall. A particularly dangerous situation (PDS) for flooding is forecasted from Wednesday through Sunday, with nearly 4 million Americans under a PDS flood watch in cities like Memphis, Little Rock, Jonesboro, and Union City. This flood watch is expected to last until Sunday morning, affecting regions in Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee.
On Wednesday, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall (level 3 of 4) is in effect from Little Rock to Memphis, extending to Nashville and Louisville. In total, over 32 million Americans are under a general flood watch until Sunday, impacting major cities such as Louisville, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit.
As the week progresses, the flood threat will intensify. On Thursday, a rare high risk (level 4 of 4) for excessive rainfall will be in place from Jonesboro to the suburbs of Memphis and Paducah. The following day, a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall will extend from just north of Dallas to Jonesboro and St. Louis. By Saturday, the final day of this multi-day life-threatening event, heavy rain will continue to affect areas from Jonesboro to Memphis, Louisville, and Cincinnati.
This extensive weather system is projected to deliver between 10 to 15 inches of rain in the bull’s-eye area between Jonesboro and Paducah, while regions from Little Rock to Memphis, Louisville, and Cincinnati may experience 7 to 10 inches of rainfall. The weather system is expected to shift southward by Sunday afternoon, bringing additional rain to the Southeast through Monday and Tuesday.
Residents in the affected areas are urged to stay informed and take necessary precautions as this extreme weather event unfolds. Preparedness is key to ensuring safety during these severe conditions.
