On November 23, 2023, a detailed European counter-proposal emerged, addressing the United States' draft 28-point Ukraine peace plan. This proposal, crafted by the E3 nations—Britain, France, and Germany—takes the U.S. plan as a foundation and suggests revisions and omissions to create a more cohesive approach to peace in Ukraine. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the counter-proposal.
1. Reaffirmation of Ukraine's Sovereignty: The proposal begins with a strong emphasis on reaffirming Ukraine's sovereignty. This is crucial for establishing a stable foundation for peace.
2. Non-Aggression Agreement: A total and complete non-aggression agreement is to be reached among Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. This will resolve ambiguities that have lingered for the past three decades. Notably, point 3 from the U.S. plan, which suggested expectations around Russia's military behavior and NATO's expansion, is omitted.
3. Dialogue for Security Concerns: Following the signing of a peace agreement, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address security concerns, aiming to create an environment conducive to de-escalation and economic opportunity.
4. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: The proposal includes robust security guarantees for Ukraine, ensuring its defense and stability in the region.
5. Military Cap: The size of the Ukrainian military will be capped at 800,000 personnel during peacetime, establishing a clear limit on military capacity.
6. NATO Membership Considerations: Ukraine's potential membership in NATO will depend on a consensus among NATO members—a consensus that currently does not exist.
7. NATO Troop Presence: NATO has agreed not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine during peacetime, a move aimed at reducing tensions in the region.
8. U.S. Security Guarantees: The proposal outlines a U.S. guarantee similar to NATO's Article 5, with specific conditions regarding military actions by Ukraine and Russia. Should Ukraine engage in aggression against Russia, it would forfeit this guarantee.
9. EU Membership and Market Access: Ukraine will be eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferred market access while its membership is evaluated.
The counter-proposal also outlines a Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine, which includes:
Creation of a Ukraine Development Fund focused on high-growth industries such as technology and data centers.Joint efforts with the United States to restore and modernize Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.Infrastructure development and redevelopment of war-impacted areas.Special financing packages from the World Bank to accelerate these initiatives.The proposal envisions the progressive reintegration of Russia into the global economy:
Sanction relief discussions will occur gradually and on a case-by-case basis.A long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement between the U.S. and Russia will be pursued, focusing on mutual development.Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8, signaling a willingness to engage diplomatically.The counter-proposal emphasizes humanitarian efforts, including:
Establishment of a humanitarian committee to resolve outstanding issues, including prisoner exchanges and family reunifications.Provisions for addressing the suffering of victims of the conflict.Legally binding agreements with monitoring by a Board of Peace chaired by former President Donald J. Trump.Finally, upon agreement from all parties, an immediate ceasefire will be enacted, with both sides withdrawing to pre-agreed points for implementation.
This European counter-proposal aims to create a balanced and comprehensive framework for a lasting peace in Ukraine, focusing on security, economic rebuilding, and humanitarian considerations.