The escalating conflict between India and Pakistan is providing the world with a unique opportunity to observe the performance of advanced Chinese military technology in real combat scenarios against established Western hardware. As tensions rise, Chinese defense stocks are experiencing a significant surge. This week, shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, a major Chinese defense manufacturer, rose by 40% after Pakistan claimed that it successfully utilized AVIC-produced J-10C fighter jets to down Indian combat aircraft, including the sophisticated French-made Rafale during an aerial confrontation.
Pakistan has not only claimed victory but also asserted that five Indian fighter jets were shot down during the engagement, which reportedly involved 125 aircraft in total. However, India has yet to confirm any losses or respond to these claims. When questioned about the situation, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry indicated a lack of familiarity with the specifics. Nonetheless, as Pakistan's primary arms supplier, China is closely monitoring how its weapon systems perform in actual combat.
Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China has rapidly modernized its military, investing heavily in the development of advanced weaponry and cutting-edge technologies. This modernization effort extends to Pakistan, which has been characterized as China's "ironclad brother." According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has supplied 81% of Pakistan's imported weapons over the past five years, including advanced fighter jets, missiles, radars, and air-defense systems that are crucial in any potential military conflict with India.
Chinese and Pakistani forces have engaged in increasingly sophisticated joint military exercises, which include air, sea, and land drills, as well as combat simulations. According to Sajjan Gohel, an international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, “This makes any engagement between India and Pakistan a de facto test environment for Chinese military exports.”
The ongoing conflict underscores a significant geopolitical realignment in the region. Historically, India and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir since gaining independence from Britain in 1947. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported India, while the United States and China backed Pakistan. Today, the landscape is shifting as India strengthens its ties with the US, while Pakistan deepens its relationship with China, marking a new era of great power rivalry.
With Pakistan largely armed by China and India purchasing over half of its weaponry from the US and its allies, any conflict between these two nations could effectively serve as a confrontation between Chinese and Western military technologies. Following a recent attack in Kashmir, India launched missile strikes targeting what it termed "terrorist infrastructure" in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Analysts speculate that these strikes involved India's French-made Rafale and Russian-made Su-30 fighter jets.
Pakistan has celebrated what it claims is a significant victory, asserting that its J-10C fighters successfully shot down several Indian aircraft during a fierce aerial battle. Salman Ali Bettani, an international relations scholar, described the engagement as "the most intense air-to-air combat engagement between two nuclear-armed nations,” marking a pivotal moment in the operational use of advanced Chinese-origin systems.
If confirmed, the downing of Indian aircraft would not only signify a tactical victory for Pakistan but would also enhance the credibility of Chinese military exports on the global stage. It could potentially lead to increased interest from nations in the Middle East and North Africa, who may seek alternatives to Western military technology. Observers note that the J-10C, classified as a 4.5-generation fighter, is now the most advanced aircraft in Pakistan's arsenal, alongside the JF-17 Block III, which was co-developed with China.
Experts suggest that the performance of Chinese weapons in this ongoing conflict could boost China's arms sales internationally, particularly as the country seeks to fill the void left by the US in traditional markets. As Siemon Wezeman from SIPRI notes, "China has stepped into a vacuum left by the US," showcasing its role as a reliable ally for Pakistan.
As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, the implications of this conflict extend far beyond the immediate region. The outcomes of any military engagement could reshape the future of global arms sales and influence the strategic calculations of nations worldwide. With China positioning itself as a formidable military supplier, the dynamics of power in South Asia are poised for a significant transformation.
