The world-renowned Paris Air Show is set to take place next week, marking a significant event in the aviation industry calendar. Occurring every two years, this spectacular showcase is recognized as the largest air show globally, both in terms of the number of exhibitors and the expansive space it occupies. The event consistently attracts a plethora of aircraft orders, ranging from firm commitments to simple Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs). In 2023, the show achieved an unprecedented total of 1,303 aircraft orders, which included MoUs, Letters of Intent (LOIs), and options. Among these, a record-breaking 1,160 were firm orders, setting a new benchmark for the Paris Air Show.
While the predictions for this year's event suggest a decline in total orders, significant interest is still anticipated from various operators, particularly in the East. In this article, we will delve into analyst predictions, explore potential orders from the Middle East, and provide a comprehensive summary of rumored orders up to this point.
Aviation intelligence platform IBA forecasts between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders at this year's Paris Air Show. According to Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist at IBA, orders are expected to come from various regions, particularly the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe. The Americas and North Africa are also predicted to play a role in this year's order tally. However, no specific predictions have been made regarding South America or Oceania.
Aircraft lessors are anticipated to be active participants, with Hatcher suggesting that an order from the US' Air Lease Corporation (ALC), one of the world's largest aircraft lessors, could be on the horizon. Historically, ALC has made announcements at airshows, and only twice since 2010 has it refrained from placing orders. Hatcher notes the complexities of the current economic landscape, stating that while consumer confidence saw a recovery in May due to easing tensions and job security, this has had limited influence on aircraft orders.
Hatcher explains, “Stepping back though, aircraft orders have very little to do with near-term demand when the likely first delivery slots could be eight years away. However, near-term uncertainty, rising costs, and slipping yields may underscore a greater desire to place non-firm commitments instead.”
This year, Airbus will be looking to counter the recent successes of Boeing. Following former President Trump’s visit to the Middle East, Boeing reported an impressive 268 orders over a three-day period, averaging 89 orders each day. While these orders likely resulted from negotiations held months in advance, they symbolize a significant achievement for Boeing.
In response, Airbus has remained active with its airline partners in the region, leading to rumors of potential orders from several carriers. Some of these airlines had previously signed agreements with Boeing back in May. Below, we summarize the rumors surrounding Airbus orders in the Middle East alongside details of the May Boeing deals. It’s important to note that these Airbus orders remain unconfirmed at this stage.
If the rumored Riyadh Air order materializes, the Paris Air Show in 2025 could be monumental for Airbus. The company is already preparing to showcase two aircraft featuring its vibrant livery, including an Airbus A321XLR and a Boeing 787-9.
Interestingly, it’s not only Middle Eastern airlines gearing up to announce orders. Rumors indicate that deals may also be in the works from carriers such as LOT Polish Airlines and AirAsia. Historically, Airbus tends to perform better than Boeing at the Paris Air Show, particularly given its status as a local player. Several questions linger ahead of the event: Will Air France-KLM seek to enhance its A220 order? Will a substantial order of around 500 Airbus planes from China be unveiled in Paris next week? Who will be signing an agreement with Embraer on Monday at the 12:30 contract signing? Will other airlines, such as Tunisair, also make a play?
As the Paris Air Show approaches, we eagerly await the answers to these questions. Stay tuned as we provide live updates from Le Bourget, bringing you the latest news on aircraft orders and industry developments.
