Israel has conducted a preliminary analysis of the damage inflicted by recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s primary nuclear facilities. This assessment, which is based on on-the-ground evaluations, indicates that the attacks resulted in extensive destruction. A senior Israeli official, who requested anonymity to speak freely, revealed that Tehran has been “actively trying to hide the damage” caused by the strikes on Sunday. This information comes in the wake of President Trump's statements in The Hague on Wednesday, where he claimed that the attacks had nearly dismantled Iran’s enrichment program.
During the NATO summit, Trump consistently defended the effectiveness of the strikes, alluding to individuals who had assessed the damage firsthand, but did not disclose specific details. The Israeli official emphasized that this is not a definitive assessment, stating, “I can’t say it’s a final assessment, because we’re less than a week after. It’s not like we can send officers openly. But that’s the indication we have now.”
In response to the bombing raid, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry acknowledged that the nuclear sites were “badly damaged.” However, the Iranian government maintains that it will persist in its nuclear endeavors, which it insists are intended for peaceful applications. A comprehensive review of the military operation is anticipated to take weeks. Experts have expressed skepticism regarding the swift declarations of success made by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, noting that battlefield damage assessments often lack precision.
“Battlefield damage assessment is an imprecise art, with initial estimates frequently being way off,” commented Patrick Clawson, an expert on Iran and research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He advised caution regarding any claims—whether from Iran, Trump, or Israel—concerning the state of Iran’s enriched uranium stocks or the status of its centrifuges.
These preliminary findings from Israel align with an initial assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which raised doubts about the efficacy of the U.S. strikes. According to a U.S. official familiar with the DIA's findings, there is low confidence that Iran has lost the core elements of its nuclear program following the attacks. This assessment was initially reported by CNN.
The U.S. military action followed a nine-day Israeli campaign that targeted and severely weakened Iran’s military capabilities, including its air defenses, military leadership, and ballistic missile stockpiles, while also damaging its nuclear facilities. Israeli intelligence has closely observed the Iranian leadership's response to the strikes. The Israeli official indicated that there is uncertainty among Iranian leaders about the full extent of the damage, as the nuclear program was compartmentalized, preventing the sharing of critical information. “A lot of the officers who were highly involved on the ground level were eliminated,” the official noted, suggesting that much of the leadership remains uninformed about the current situation.
The evolving intelligence landscape comes as Trump ardently defended the U.S. mission, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, during multiple appearances at the NATO summit. He asserted, “It’s been obliterated, totally obliterated,” referring to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Addressing the DIA report, he remarked, “They did a report, but it was like, if you look at the dates, it’s just a few days after.”
The deployment of powerful “bunker buster” munitions was aimed at Iran’s main nuclear sites, particularly targeting the Fordo facility, which is situated deep within a mountain. These strikes were designed to neutralize Iran’s most advanced equipment and highly enriched uranium, which could potentially be utilized for nuclear weaponry. Initial damage assessments remain unclear, but Trump stated that, since the attacks, “we’ve collected additional intelligence. We’ve also spoken to people that have seen the site, and the site is obliterated.”
