On Monday, President Trump's advisers, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are scheduled to meet in Berlin with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the leaders of Germany, France, and the U.K. This meeting aims to negotiate an agreement regarding the U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, as reported by two White House officials to Axios.
This meeting is crucial as the White House is urging Ukraine to endorse its peace plan. However, a major obstacle remains: the territorial concessions that Kyiv is being asked to consider. U.S. officials believe that most other issues are nearing resolution and that President Zelensky might have hinted at a potential pathway forward concerning territorial disputes.
Notably, a White House official highlighted that Zelensky indicated during public remarks on Thursday that Ukraine could hold a referendum regarding a peace deal that may involve ceding territory. This suggestion has been interpreted by the U.S. as a sign of progress in negotiations. In contrast, Russia maintains that it must control the entire Donbas region as part of any agreement, even though approximately 14% of the Donbas is still under Ukrainian control.
The U.S. has included Russia's demand in its peace plan, proposing that the contested area become a demilitarized zone. However, Zelensky expressed skepticism about the U.S. proposal for a free economic zone in the Donbas and is seeking clarifications on various issues. He emphasized that the fairness of the compromises Ukraine is expected to make should be determined by the Ukrainian people through a referendum or election, although such a vote would be challenging under current circumstances.
During a recent meeting, European leaders expressed their support for Zelensky if he decides to propose a referendum concerning territorial concessions. This statement highlights the level of international backing for Ukraine amidst ongoing negotiations.
In a virtual meeting, Witkoff and Kushner evaluated the plan for a demilitarized zone alongside the national security advisers from Ukraine, Germany, France, and the U.K. According to a White House official, the discussions and the latest round of U.S.-Ukraine talks indicated sufficient progress to encourage President Trump to send his advisers to Europe. Trump reportedly believes there is a potential for peace and has confidence in Witkoff and Kushner's capabilities.
Significant advancements have been made regarding the security guarantees that Ukraine would receive from the U.S. and Europe. A senior U.S. official stated that the Trump administration is prepared to provide Ukraine with a guarantee resembling NATO's Article 5, which would be subject to congressional approval and legally binding. The goal is to offer a robust security guarantee that balances accountability with strength.
The U.S. official further elaborated that there would be three distinct agreements pertaining to peace, security guarantees, and reconstruction. Recent talks have afforded Ukraine a comprehensive vision for the post-war landscape for the first time. Negotiations surrounding the economic and reconstruction package are reportedly progressing well. The U.S. official noted that when stakeholders understand the benefits they will receive, they are more inclined to move forward.
The current proposal suggests that the conflict will conclude with Ukraine retaining sovereignty over 80% of its territory, receiving the most substantial security guarantee it has ever had, along with a robust prosperity package.
Several European leaders have advised Zelensky against rushing into a deal that would require Ukraine to cede territory that it has not lost on the battlefield. The willingness of Russia to accept the U.S. proposals remains uncertain. Zelensky has indicated that the U.S. hopes to reach a comprehensive understanding of the plan by Christmas.