In the wake of a sustained pressure campaign, the Trump administration is taking significant steps to prepare for a potential regime change in Venezuela. This initiative follows the deployment of thousands of U.S. troops and a carrier strike group to the Caribbean, alongside repeated threats directed at Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. According to two senior administration officials and another source familiar with the discussions, the White House is quietly drafting plans that outline various scenarios for post-Maduro governance.
The plans being developed are closely guarded within the White House and include multiple options for U.S. actions that could stabilize Venezuela in the event of Maduro's departure—whether that occurs through negotiation or force. While the official narrative emphasizes the military buildup's focus on reducing drug trafficking into the U.S., the internal strategy signals a clear willingness to consider military intervention to remove Maduro from power.
Despite the administration's military maneuvers, sources indicate there is no strong desire for increased U.S. engagement in Venezuela. President Trump himself has publicly threatened escalation, including land strikes, but senior officials claim there is a lack of appetite for such measures. In a recent phone conversation with Maduro, Trump reportedly issued an ultimatum, suggesting it would be in Maduro's best interest to leave the country.
The Venezuelan opposition, led by figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, has been working on its own day-after plans for years. These plans, which aim to address critical areas like security, the economy, energy, infrastructure, and education, have been shared with various elements of the Trump administration. The opposition has developed specific "100-hour" and "100-day" plans for post-Maduro governance, though it remains unclear how much input these plans have had on the administration's strategy.
The Trump administration has previously recognized González as the "rightful president" of Venezuela, following claims that he won the most votes in the last election. Discussions within the administration have included potential leadership roles for Machado and González if Maduro were to be ousted. However, the current focus on day-after planning has intensified, driven by the necessity to navigate various scenarios surrounding Maduro's exit.
One of the key challenges for the U.S. will be determining the level and type of support it can provide to Venezuela post-Maduro, ensuring that the nation does not fall into chaos. Experts have indicated that while ground troop deployment is unlikely, plans for economic, security, and intelligence support will be essential.
Officials within the administration have expressed a reluctance for lengthy negotiations with Maduro, citing his history of broken agreements. As Trump's administration plans for potential regime change, the importance of having a comprehensive alternative ready to implement immediately becomes critical. Experts are voicing approval of the administration's proactive approach, emphasizing that without a clear post-regime change plan, the U.S. risks repeating past mistakes, as seen in Iraq.
Another significant hurdle involves how the U.S. will recognize a new government in Venezuela. Should Machado and González assume power, they would likely receive immediate recognition as legitimate leaders. However, if a transitional government includes individuals from the Chavismo movement, the recognition process could become more complicated. This recognition is crucial for lifting sanctions and accessing economic support that will be vital for stabilizing the country.
While the Trump administration maintains communication with the Venezuelan opposition, high-level meetings with officials like Marco Rubio appear infrequent. The opposition's governance plans are not officially sanctioned by the administration, highlighting a disconnect in the collaborative effort for post-Maduro Venezuela. Nonetheless, Smolansky, a senior adviser to González and Machado, expressed alignment with U.S. goals of promoting a freer hemisphere and diminishing the influence of external actors like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and China in the region.
This evolving situation continues to develop, with the Trump administration weighing its options for potential actions should Maduro's regime collapse.