In the upcoming New Jersey governor’s race, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill will be challenging former Republican representative Jack Ciattarelli. This election is set to serve as an early national bellwether, reflecting voters' sentiments during the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term.
Sherrill emerged victorious from a competitive Democratic primary, where candidates emphasized the need to reduce costs and stand up to the White House. A former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor, Sherrill successfully flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018. She has positioned herself as a counter to both Trump and billionaire donor Elon Musk, pledging in her advertisements to “fight the Trump-Musk madness.” Sherrill has also warned that Ciattarelli would replicate harmful federal cuts, referring to them as “DOGE New Jersey.”
On the Republican side, Ciattarelli secured his nomination easily, buoyed by an endorsement from Trump. A businessperson and former state representative, Ciattarelli came close to defeating Governor Phil Murphy (D) four years ago, losing by just three percentage points. Despite previously criticizing Trump, Ciattarelli has embraced the former president's support this year while attempting to center his campaign on state-level issues.
According to the Associated Press, both Sherrill and Ciattarelli were projected to win their respective nominations shortly after polls closed on Tuesday night. This general election is anticipated to be closely monitored as one of only two governor’s races—along with Virginia—that will offer insights into national trends a year into the current administration. Democrats aim to frame the race as a referendum on President Trump, accusing Ciattarelli of aligning himself with the former president for political advantage.
New Jersey has not supported a Republican presidential candidate in over three decades; however, the governorship has frequently switched parties. National Democratic strategists are keenly aware of this dynamic and plan to invest heavily in the general election campaign. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin emphasized that the party would be “all hands on deck” to secure a victory.
The race has already attracted over $88 million in ad spending, making it the fourth-most-expensive non-presidential primary in history, according to AdImpact. The majority of this funding has come from Democrats, who are promoting their plans to lower the cost of living and combat Trump. Notably, over 70% of broadcast ad airings during the primaries mentioned Trump, highlighting his significant role in shaping the political landscape.
Sherrill was regarded as a slight favorite heading into the Democratic primary, with rivals attempting to undercut her anti-Trump narrative. Attack ads from opponents accused her of “abandoning her seat in Congress just when we need her to stand up to Trump” and of accepting funds from “Elon Musk’s campaign fund,” due to prior support from a political group linked to Musk’s company, SpaceX.
The role of Musk as a Democratic antagonist may diminish, given his recent distancing from government, but many in the party expect him to remain a focal point. Meanwhile, Trump will undoubtedly take center stage in this election. Other Democratic candidates, such as Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, have also positioned themselves as staunch opponents of Trump, with Gottheimer even depicting himself literally boxing with the former president in his first TV commercial.
Ciattarelli's relationship with Trump has evolved; he once labeled Trump a “charlatan” during the former president's initial campaign but has since sought to align himself more closely with Trump. He met with the president at his Bedminster golf club this year, and Trump has praised Ciattarelli’s efforts to connect with the MAGA base, stating that he is now “100% (PLUS!)” in support of him. Despite this, Ciattarelli is attempting to steer the conversation back to state issues, questioning Trump’s relevance to local concerns like property taxes and crime.
As the New Jersey governor’s race unfolds, all eyes will be on how both candidates navigate the complex interplay of national politics and local governance, making this election a significant barometer of voter sentiment across the country.
