In the latest political landscape of New York, Governor Kathy Hochul is facing a tightening race against potential Republican challenger Rep. Elise Stefanik. A recent poll conducted by Siena College indicates that Hochul still holds a lead, but it has significantly decreased since June. The survey, which included responses from 813 registered voters in New York, shows Hochul with a favorable standing of 45% against Stefanik’s 31%. However, this 14-point lead represents a notable decline from the 23-point advantage Hochul enjoyed in July, where she led 47%-24% in a previous poll.
While Rep. Stefanik has yet to officially announce her candidacy for governor, she has been actively critiquing Hochul’s performance in office. The Siena College poll was conducted between August 4 and 7 and carries a margin of error of 4.2%. Despite closing the gap, Stefanik still faces significant challenges in gaining voter support, as 49% of those polled expressed familiarity with her, while 46% were not familiar. When asked whether she possesses the experience necessary to be governor, a slight majority indicated they believe she does not, particularly among independent voters, who showed a divided opinion.
Moreover, the poll revealed that 49% of participants believe that Stefanik's potential governorship would be detrimental to New York. This sentiment underscores the uphill battle she faces as she seeks to solidify her position among voters.
On a brighter note for the Democrats, Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani is making significant strides in the race for New York City mayor. The Siena poll marks the first data regarding the general election for the mayoral position and shows Mamdani leading with a commanding 19-point advantage over former governor Andrew Cuomo, garnering substantial support among registered voters. Although the sample size for New York City voters was modest, comprising only 317 voters in the overall statewide poll with a margin of error of 6.7%, Mamdani’s position appears promising as he commands a majority of support from Democratic voters.
However, Cuomo still leads among key demographics, particularly Black and Jewish voters, where Mamdani previously underperformed in the Democratic primary. The polling also highlighted a significant generational divide, with Mamdani leading Cuomo by an impressive 49 points among younger voters aged 18 to 34, but trailing him by 6 points among voters aged 55 and older.
The poll further assessed Mamdani’s statewide favorability for the first time, revealing a net negative perception among surveyed voters, with 37% holding an unfavorable opinion compared to 28% with a favorable view. Despite this, a strong plurality within New York City expressed a favorable opinion of Mamdani. In contrast, Cuomo faces a more challenging landscape with 61% of voters indicating a poor opinion of him, a sentiment that spans across party lines and demographics.
As the political landscape in New York continues to evolve leading up to the November elections, both Hochul’s gubernatorial race against Stefanik and Mamdani’s bid for mayor are critical focal points for voters. The upcoming months will be crucial as candidates strive to solidify their positions and connect with constituents across the state.
