On Tuesday, Virginia voters are participating in a groundbreaking gubernatorial election that could reflect shifting attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the Democratic Party's efforts to reclaim its influence on the national stage. The race features Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, who currently serves as Virginia’s lieutenant governor and is a committed conservative, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a center-left candidate and former CIA case officer. Both candidates are vying to become the first woman to lead the commonwealth of Virginia. Earle-Sears also has the potential to make history as the first Black woman elected governor in any state.
This election serves as a pivotal testing ground for both political parties, particularly in light of the upcoming midterm elections that could alter the trajectory of Trump’s presidency. Virginia, a state that Trump lost in three consecutive presidential elections, has faced challenges from many of his policies, including significant cuts to the civil service and the ongoing government shutdown. For Republicans, Earle-Sears represents whether a candidate aligned with Trump’s ideals—despite not receiving his full endorsement—can successfully win in a battleground state.
For Democrats, Spanberger's performance will indicate whether the center-left strategy that proved effective during the 2018 midterms remains viable as the party gears up for the 2026 elections. With the party's focus shifting towards energizing its progressive base, Spanberger emphasized the significance of the election during her final campaign swing, stating, “Virginia voters can and will send a message amid the recklessness and the heartlessness coming out of Washington.”
Both candidates have framed the stakes of this election remarkably differently. Earle-Sears characterized Spanberger as a representation of “the darkness” in her remarks to supporters. Spanberger, who relinquished her congressional seat to pursue the governorship, has been vocal about concerns regarding the cost of living in Virginia and the negative impacts of Trump’s domestic policies and tax cuts on the state’s health care system. She has invested millions in television and digital advertising, attempting to link Earle-Sears to Trump while avoiding the Democratic Party's more alarmist rhetoric regarding democracy.
Despite Trump’s lukewarm support for Earle-Sears—who previously distanced herself from Trump before reversing her stance—she has expressed approval of his overall performance. However, during her recent rally, Earle-Sears chose not to mention Trump, instead focusing on cultural issues such as transgender individuals’ participation in sports. In contrast, she downplayed her long-standing opposition to abortion rights, providing Spanberger an opportunity to highlight her support for reproductive rights in a state that has not implemented restrictions since the Supreme Court's decision to overturn the national right to abortion services.
In addition to the gubernatorial race, voters will also decide on the replacement for Earle-Sears as lieutenant governor, as well as all 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, which is currently controlled by Democrats. The state Senate, also under Democratic control, will face its voters in 2027. This election is not just about the governorship but represents a broader challenge for both parties as they navigate a complex political landscape in Virginia.
As the results unfold, the implications of this historic election will be felt far beyond Virginia’s borders, potentially shaping the political narrative leading into the 2024 elections.
