Despite being firmly in the summer months, many individuals are experiencing symptoms typically associated with winter illnesses, such as runny noses, dry coughs, and fevers. Currently, there is a significant probability that these symptoms are linked to Covid-19. Reports indicate that levels of the pandemic-causing virus are at their highest this year. In this article, we delve into the reasons behind the resurgence of Covid-19 and provide essential tips on how to avoid infection.
According to Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, there are three primary reasons why infection rates might increase: a decline in population immunity, the emergence of a new and more infectious variant, and changes in behavior that elevate the risk of exposure. Currently, all three factors are contributing to the rise in Covid-19 cases.
Tracking of Covid-19 cases is not as rigorous as it was during the height of the pandemic when free testing was widely available. Nevertheless, data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reveals that Covid-19 cases are at their peak, with approximately 9% of tests returning positive in the week leading up to August 24. This marks the highest positivity rate since November of the previous year. Specifically, 10.8% of tests conducted in GP practices were positive, alongside an 8.8% positivity rate among hospital patients.
Prof. Hunter notes that due to nearly a year of low reporting rates, population immunity has diminished significantly. When a person contracts Covid-19, their immune system generates antibodies capable of recognizing and neutralizing the virus upon re-exposure. However, immunity tends to wane after a few months, leaving individuals vulnerable once again. Prof. Hunter emphasizes that this decline in immunity is likely a major factor driving the current uptick in infections.
The XFG variant, a sub-variant of the notorious Omicron strain, was first identified in January and is now the predominant strain in the UK, accounting for a significant portion of global cases. The World Health Organization has been closely monitoring this strain, often referred to as Stratus. Prof. Hunter explains that XFG has become dominant due to its increased infectiousness, which allows it to bypass existing immunity to some degree. However, its growth advantage is only about 31%, which pales in comparison to the 200% advantage of the original Omicron variant.
While many Covid-19 infections remain asymptomatic, there are indications that an XFG infection may lead to a hoarse or raspy voice. Other common symptoms still include coughing, fever, and changes in taste or smell, according to the NHS. Despite the reports of hoarseness, Prof. Hunter expresses skepticism, noting that other viruses, such as adenoviruses, can also cause similar symptoms.
Summer activities, including festivals, weddings, and increased foreign travel during the school holidays, are significantly contributing to the rise in Covid-19 cases. Prof. Peter Openshaw, a respiratory physician at Imperial College London, highlights that social gatherings inevitably increase the risk of transmission. Prof. Hunter supports this notion, linking international travel to a heightened risk of contracting the virus.
Looking ahead, the reopening of schools in early September may further exacerbate the situation, potentially leading to a spike in cases. Prof. Openshaw anticipates that October could witness a substantial increase in Covid-19 cases, reminiscent of previous years.
While isolating oneself completely may not be feasible, there are several measures individuals can take to reduce their risk of contracting Covid-19. Regular hand washing and sanitizing communal surfaces, such as trays on airplanes and gym equipment, can significantly lower the chances of infection.
For most individuals, the risk of severe illness is lower due to prior infections; studies suggest that, on average, people in England have contracted Covid-19 approximately four times. However, those who are older or have underlying health conditions should remain vigilant. Prof. Hunter advises wearing masks in crowded places, accepting vaccine offers, and limiting contact with individuals displaying respiratory symptoms.
The autumn Covid-19 vaccination booster program is set to launch on October 1, targeting care home residents, individuals over 75, and anyone aged over six months who is immunocompromised. Prof. Openshaw emphasizes the effectiveness of available vaccines, encouraging individuals to accept vaccination offers to mitigate the risk of serious illness.
If you suspect you have contracted Covid-19, rest and hydration are crucial. Dr. Adrian Hayter, medical director for clinical policy at the Royal College of General Practitioners, recommends over-the-counter medications like paracetamol or ibuprofen to relieve symptoms such as a sore throat or blocked nose. For those experiencing breathlessness, sitting upright and breathing slowly can help.
A small group of individuals may qualify for antiviral treatments that inhibit the virus's ability to replicate. Dr. Hayter advises anyone with worsening symptoms or health concerns to seek medical advice promptly. It’s essential to isolate for at least three days and avoid contact with vulnerable individuals for ten days, considering the high transmissibility of the virus.
As Covid-19 remains a significant health concern, understanding the factors contributing to its rise and taking proactive measures can help mitigate its impact this summer.
