As the release date approaches, the fate of the multiverse-themed Karate Kid: Legends hangs in the balance. Despite the film featuring original star Ralph Macchio alongside action icon Jackie Chan, who previously starred in the 2010 remake, projections indicate that it may open lower than initially expected at the domestic box office. Sony anticipates a third-place debut for this highly anticipated film, estimating earnings between $21 million to $23 million. In contrast, rival studios predict a more conservative opening, estimating closer to $19 million.
Initially, tracking suggested a stronger opening at $25 million, and just three weeks ago, projections were even more optimistic, estimating $35 million. Regardless of its opening weekend performance, Sony remains optimistic, bolstered by a solid A- CinemaScore and positive feedback from audiences. The film's production budget was a modest $45 million, excluding marketing expenses, which positions it favorably in terms of profitability.
While audience reactions have been generally favorable, critics have expressed mixed opinions regarding Karate Kid: Legends, which stars Ben Wang in the titular role. Wang's character receives mentorship from both Macchio's character, a nod to the beloved 1984 classic, and from Chan's character. Macchio's involvement is particularly significant, as he also reprised his role in the acclaimed Netflix series Cobra Kai, which wrapped up its six-season run earlier this year.
In 2010, Sony successfully breathed new life into the franchise with The Karate Kid, starring Chan alongside Jaden Smith. That film opened to a remarkable $55 million domestically, becoming one of the year's top hits. However, box office analysts are speculating that the current enthusiasm for the franchise may have waned, at least temporarily due to the success of Cobra Kai, which served as a sequel to the first three films, concluding with the release of the third installment in 1989.
Middling reviews for Legends may hinder its performance further, especially in light of the ongoing success of competing films like Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning. Both of these films have been performing exceptionally well after a record-breaking Memorial Day weekend. Disney's Lilo & Stitch has shattered expectations, opening to nearly $183 million domestically and is projected to earn over $60 million this weekend alone. This film has become a dominant force at the box office, with an impressive total expected to reach $280 million by Sunday.
Meanwhile, Paramount and Skydance's Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning, featuring Tom Cruise in his final portrayal of the iconic spy Ethan Hunt, is estimated to secure second place with approximately $28 million in its sophomore outing, bringing its domestic total to $122 million. The film crossed the $100 million mark on Friday, achieving this milestone in just eight days after opening with a franchise-best $79 million over the long holiday weekend.
In addition to Karate Kid: Legends, several other new releases are making their mark this weekend. A24's much-anticipated thriller Bring Her Back, starring Sally Hawkins, is projected to finish in fifth place with earnings between $6.5 million and $8 million. At the specialty box office, renowned director Wes Anderson's The Phoenician Scheme is set to open in just six locations, but is on track to achieve the highest per-location average of the year, following its debut at the prestigious Cannes Film Festival.
