Universal has scored another successful summer release with its latest installment in the Jurassic Park franchise, titled Jurassic World Rebirth. The film is projected to earn approximately $28 million on its opening day, coinciding with the July 4th holiday, which is a notable achievement compared to the $27.2 million opening day of last year’s Despicable Me 4.
As the film heads into its first weekend, industry forecasts suggest it could reach a $77.5 million gross over the three-day weekend and around $127.5 million over the five-day holiday span. However, predicting box office performance based on Wednesday openings can be challenging. The timing of July 4th falling on a Friday might impact daily earnings, as Fridays are traditionally less favorable for box office sales.
The last time Independence Day fell on a Friday was in 2014, when films typically saw a rise in daily earnings. For instance, during that year, the top movie at the box office, Transformers: Age of Extinction, saw a 28% drop from its previous day’s gross. This historical context adds an interesting layer to the box office performance of Jurassic World Rebirth.
Within the Jurassic franchise, Jurassic World Rebirth marks the fourth highest opening day among its predecessors. Notably, this is only the second time a film in the series has debuted on a Wednesday, with the last being Jurassic World III, which earned $19 million back in 2001. The top three opening days in the franchise remain Jurassic World with $81.9 million, Jurassic World Dominion at $59.5 million, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom at $58.5 million.
Jurassic World Rebirth is set to screen at 4,308 theaters and will benefit from enhanced viewing experiences through Premium Large Format (PLF) screens. Although the film does not yet have a score on Rotten Tomatoes, it currently stands at 54% Rotten, a significant improvement from the 29% Rotten score of Dominion. Social media engagement for the film has reached impressive heights, with RelishMix reporting that Universal's social campaign has amassed a staggering 921 million followers across platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, and X—206% above the norms for the action-adventure sci-fi genre.
The viral repost rate on YouTube is an impressive 26:1, indicating strong engagement, while the film has recorded 219 million views on Facebook. Universal has also contributed over 50 videos to YouTube, showcasing their exceptional marketing efforts. The film’s social media star is Jonathan Bailey, who boasts 5.4 million followers on Instagram, while other stars like Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali have been less active on social platforms.
Jurassic World Rebirth joins a list of successful July 4th openings for Universal, which includes F9 in 2021 with a $70 million three-day gross, Minions: The Rise of Gru in 2022 at $123 million over four days, and last year’s Despicable Me 4, which earned $122.6 million over five days.
In addition to Jurassic World Rebirth, it’s worth noting that Apple Original Films’ F1, distributed by Warner Bros, is also expected to perform well, projecting an estimated $6 million today. The film had already grossed $6.9 million on Monday and $8.6 million on discount Tuesday, bringing its total cumulative earnings to over $78 million by the end of the week.
