Gold Derby has been at the forefront of predicting the 2025 Oscars since July, when the film Sing Sing was the initial favorite for Best Picture. Unfortunately, this prison drama ended up with just three nominations: Best Actor for Colman Domingo, Best Song for "Like a Bird," and Best Adapted Screenplay. Over the past eight months, Anora has consistently held the top position in our rankings, briefly losing it to The Brutalist after its strong showing at the Golden Globes. However, Anora has since reclaimed the top spot following victories at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild awards.
Meanwhile, Conclave has risen to a record high of No. 2 on our Best Picture chart, thanks to significant wins at the BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild. Anora, which tells the compelling story of a Brooklyn sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, and The Brutalist, which follows the journey of a Holocaust survivor striving for the American Dream, are both expected to win three Oscars each. Anora is predicted to take home Best Picture, Best Director for Sean Baker, and Best Original Screenplay; while The Brutalist is expected to win Best Actor for Adrien Brody, Best Cinematography, and Best Score.
Several films are projected to secure two wins each, including Conclave (for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing), The Substance (featuring Best Actress for Demi Moore and Best Makeup & Hairstyling), Emilia Pérez (with nominations for Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña and Best Song for "El Mal"), Wicked (nominated for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design), and Dune: Part Two (in contention for Best Sound and Best Visual Effects).
The Oscar odds from Gold Derby are based on the collective predictions of over 10,700 individuals, including experts from major media outlets and our dedicated user community. The 97th annual Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O'Brien, will take place on March 2. Below is a snapshot of Gold Derby's final predictions for the 2025 Oscars across all 23 categories, as updated on February 27.
1. Anora — 5/1
2. Conclave — 6/1
3. The Brutalist — 7/1
4. A Complete Unknown — 9/1
5. Wicked — 9/1
6. Emilia Pérez — 11/1
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I'm Still Here — 12/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
1. Sean Baker (Anora) — 7/4
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 16/5
3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 11/2
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2
5. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 15/2
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 2/1
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 82/25
3. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) — 37/10
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 19/2
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 9/5
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 3/1
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 5/1
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 15/2
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/2
1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) — 3/2
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 4/1
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 11/2
4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 13/2
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 29/20
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 5/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 5/1
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 13/2
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 7/1
As we approach the 2025 Academy Awards, the competition is heating up, and predictions are evolving. For more in-depth analysis, visit our charts and forums to stay updated on the latest Oscar predictions, and make your own forecasts now—it’s both fun and easy!
