On Friday, the release of fresh hiring data is anticipated to provide crucial insights into the performance of a significant economic gauge in the wake of President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement made early last month. This jobs report, which will detail hiring in April, may reveal how the private sector is responding to the tariff escalation initiated on April 2. This escalation triggered the largest single-day stock market decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Just days after the initial market plunge, Trump suspended a substantial portion of these tariffs, resulting in one of the largest single-day market recoveries in history. Despite this, a concurrent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods maintained the effective tariff rate at its highest level in over a century, as indicated by the Yale Budget Lab.
Economists project that the U.S. economy added approximately 133,000 jobs in April. While this figure suggests solid job growth, it represents a notable slowdown from the 228,000 jobs added in the previous month. The upcoming jobs data follows a recent government report indicating a contraction in the U.S. economy over the first three months of 2025. Much of this contraction is attributed to the uncertainty generated by Trump's rapid succession of tariff proposals, which has left both businesses and consumers on edge.
According to government data released on Wednesday, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined at an annualized rate of 0.3% for the three months ending in March. This represents a significant drop from the 2.4% annualized growth recorded during the last quarter of 2024.
Despite the challenges posed by diminished consumer sentiment and market volatility, the labor market has remained a bright spot since Trump took office. The U.S. has seen a robust average of 170,000 jobs added each month this year, with the unemployment rate holding steady at historically low levels. Furthermore, inflation rates have shown signs of cooling, with March data indicating that price increases are now significantly below the peak levels reached in 2022.
Nonetheless, concerns about a potential recession are escalating on Wall Street, as Trump's tariffs threaten to disrupt global trade dynamics. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for recession odds from 35% to 45%, while JPMorgan estimated a 60% likelihood of a recession occurring this year. Addressing these concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago, acknowledging the strong condition of the U.S. economy but also warning of signs suggesting a potential slowdown. "Life moves pretty fast," Powell remarked, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the current economic climate.
The Trump administration has largely refrained from dismissing recession fears outright. Trump has pledged to renegotiate trade agreements with various U.S. partners, asserting that while the U.S. economy may endure short-term difficulties, it will ultimately thrive under a more favorable set of international trade rules. "We have been ripped off by every country in the world practically," Trump stated during a press conference in the Oval Office last month. "And friend and foe, we're not doing that anymore."
