Donbas, short for the Donets Basin, is a crucial industrial heartland located in eastern Ukraine. This region is renowned for its abundance of coal and heavy industry, making it a vital economic area. Historically, Donbas has been one of Ukraine’s most Russian-speaking regions, significantly influenced by waves of Russian migration during the Soviet Union's industrialization efforts. These developments transformed its coalmines and steel plants into the backbone of the USSR's economy.
The political loyalties of Donbas have often inclined towards Russia. For instance, Viktor Yanukovych, the former president who was ousted in 2014, was born in Donetsk and established his political power base in this region. The situation escalated in 2014 when mass protests led to Yanukovych fleeing the country. Following his ousting, Moscow swiftly annexed Crimea, and unrest began to spread across eastern Ukraine. Armed groups, supported by Russian weapons and fighters, declared the formation of self-proclaimed “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk, sparking a separatist war that fueled growing resentment towards Moscow among the parts of Donbas still held by Ukraine.
During Ukraine's 2019 presidential election, voters in Donbas expressed their preferences by backing Volodymyr Zelenskyy by a significant margin. A Russian speaker himself, Zelenskyy campaigned on a platform that promised to end the conflict in Donbas while ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty. However, the situation took a drastic turn when Russia launched its invasion in February 2022. Putin used the narrative of protecting Donbas residents as a central justification for what he termed a “special military operation.” In a televised address, he claimed that the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had requested assistance from Moscow, repeating unfounded assertions that Russian-speaking residents were facing “genocide” from the Kyiv government.
In reality, the situation in Donbas served as a mere pretext for a broader military ambition. Almost immediately after the invasion began, Russian forces advanced well beyond the region, with the intention of seizing control of Kyiv and overthrowing Zelenskyy’s government. This aggressive expansion highlighted the underlying motivations behind Putin’s actions, which went far beyond merely securing Donbas.
For years, Russian state media attempted to elicit sympathy for Donbas by portraying Ukraine as discriminatory towards its Russian-speaking population. However, this narrative never resonated strongly with the general public. Unlike Crimea, which holds deep historical significance for many Russians, Donbas remained a more obscure industrial region with minimal symbolic importance. Prior to the full-scale invasion, independent polls indicated that only about 25% of Russians supported the incorporation of Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia. Since the invasion, though, public sentiment has shifted dramatically; surveys now reveal that a majority of Russians endorse Putin’s stated objective of “protecting” the population of Donbas and support the annexation of these territories.
Putin has reportedly conveyed to former U.S. President Donald Trump that he would halt further territorial advances in exchange for Donetsk and Luhansk. However, publicly, he has consistently claimed that Russia seeks full control over the four regions it annexed in autumn 2022, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Moreover, he has mentioned plans to establish "buffer zones" within Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. A former high-ranking Kremlin official noted that “Putin has acted opportunistically; when he launched the invasion, he had no fixed territorial limits in mind. His appetite grows once he’s tasted success.”
Military analysts remain skeptical about whether Russia possesses the economic or military capability to extend its reach significantly beyond Donbas. They suggest that the conflict may devolve into a prolonged war of attrition in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have cautioned that conceding Donbas, which includes fortified cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, could provide Russia with a strategic launchpad for deeper incursions into central Ukraine.
