On June 3, 2023, satellite imagery revealed significant damage to Russian air bases following a coordinated drone attack by Ukraine over the weekend. This operation has been recognized as one of the most complex and effective strategies employed by Ukraine in over three years of conflict, targeting at least four air bases within Russian territory utilizing 117 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) launched from containers positioned near the targets.
Open-source analysts have confirmed that several strategic bombers were either destroyed or severely damaged during this attack. Drone footage, which has been verified by Reuters, shows multiple aircraft struck at two distinct locations. Notably, Capella Space, a satellite imaging company, provided a specific image taken on June 2 of the Belaya military air base located in the Siberian region of Irkutsk. This imagery, captured just one day after the drone strikes, indicates a significant military setback for Russia.
Conventional satellite images can often be obscured by cloud cover; however, the imagery utilized in this analysis comes from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites. These advanced systems direct energy beams toward the Earth, allowing for detailed topographical identification even in challenging weather conditions. The SAR images, although grainy and monochrome, illustrate the wreckage of several aircraft scattered along the runway and within protective revetments at the air base.
According to John Ford, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the SAR imagery indicates the destruction of two Tu-22 Backfire bombers and significant damage to four Tu-95 strategic bombers. These bombers have been pivotal in launching missile strikes against Ukrainian targets. Analyst Brady Africk corroborated these findings, noting that the extent of damage was evident, though additional imagery would be beneficial for a comprehensive assessment.
While Reuters has yet to obtain SAR imagery of the Olenya airfield, drone footage verified by Ukrainian authorities shows two burning Tu-95 bombers and a third experiencing a massive explosion. The Russian Defence Ministry acknowledged that Ukraine had launched drone strikes targeting military airfields across various regions, including Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur. Notably, air defenses were reported to have repelled assaults in three of these regions, but not in Murmansk and Irkutsk, where several aircraft were set ablaze.
The Ukrainian domestic security agency, the SBU, has claimed responsibility for the operation, dubbed "Spider's Web," asserting that a total of 41 Russian warplanes were impacted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy characterized the attack as "absolutely brilliant," while Andriy Kovalenko from Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council reported that 13 aircraft were destroyed. The SBU estimated the damage from this operation at an astounding $7 billion, indicating that 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers at primary airfields were affected.
Although some experts suggest that this operation will not completely halt Russia's ability to conduct missile strikes using strategic bombers, the complexity and impact of the attack may hinder Russia’s operational capabilities. Many of the damaged aircraft are no longer in production, making replacements challenging. Furthermore, the operation is likely to compel Russia to reevaluate its air defense strategies, as suggested by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW highlights that Russian officials may need to redistribute air defense systems to cover a broader area and deploy mobile air defense groups to respond swiftly to future drone strikes.
