In an audacious move, Ukraine's drone attack against Russian airfields showcased not only bravery but also meticulous planning and flawless execution. This strategic strike targeted key military assets that Moscow has utilized to launch near-daily aerial assaults on Ukrainian civilians. According to the Ukrainian Security Service, a staggering 41 Russian aircraft were reported to have been hit, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes, although the exact number of planes rendered inoperable remains uncertain.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, hailed the operation as “a stunning success for Ukraine’s special services.” He noted that if even half of the 41 aircraft claims are verified, it could significantly impair the Russian Long Range Aviation force's ability to execute regular cruise missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. This attack also raises the stakes concerning Russia's nuclear deterrence and its signaling patrols against NATO and Japan.
The drone attacks targeted four critical airfields deep within Russian territory. The most distant target was the Belaya base in the Irkutsk region, located approximately 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) from Ukraine’s border. Other notable targets included the Olenya base near Murmansk, over 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) away; the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, about 520 kilometers (320 miles) from Ukraine; and the Ivanovo air base, which is used for Russian military transport aircraft, situated around 800 kilometers (500 miles) from the border. A visual shared by the SBU, Ukraine’s security agency, indicated another potential target in the eastern Amur region, although it remains unclear if this attack was executed or aborted.
These significant distances from Ukraine’s border likely contributed to a false sense of security for Russia, leading them to underestimate the potential for an attack. The Belaya base’s most valuable aircraft were often left in plain sight, easily visible on publicly available satellite images, including Google Maps. Despite maintaining air superiority over Ukraine, Russian defenses were not prepared for this sudden, low-altitude assault.
Ukraine's strategy involved smuggling drones close to the intended targets and launching them from nearby, rather than flying them from the border, which would have made them more vulnerable to detection. Russia’s radar and air defenses at these bases were ill-equipped to handle such an unexpected attack, primarily relying on heavy machine guns that were either unavailable or deployed too slowly.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that 117 drones were utilized in the operation, with the Ukrainian Security Service asserting that operatives successfully smuggled the drones into Russia. Reports suggest that once inside, the drones were concealed in mobile wooden sheds, cleverly hidden from view. After being transported to strategic locations near the air bases, the drones were launched with precision.
Ukrainian operatives reportedly managed to execute this complex operation across multiple Russian regions spanning three time zones. A senior source from Ukraine’s drone development program disclosed that the pilots who controlled the drones were likely stationed far from the launch sites, utilizing an internet hub that enabled remote operation. This method of communication was said to be less detectable compared to more conventional systems.
Videos shared on social media, which were verified and geolocated by CNN, captured the moment two drones took off from a truck, heading towards the Belaya air base, where thick smoke was already rising from a previous strike. Another video depicted the truck ablaze after what seemed to be a self-destruct mechanism following the attack. Zelensky noted that this operation had been in preparation for over a year and praised the security services for their "brilliant" execution.
Despite Russian officials labeling the attack as "terror attacks" and claiming that many strikes were repelled, criticism from within Russia has surfaced. High-profile military bloggers have described the attack as a significant loss for the Russian air fleet, attributing it to "criminal negligence." The SBU estimated that the strikes resulted in approximately $7 billion in damages, affecting 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers at its primary air bases. Ukraine has asserted that several strategic bombers and surveillance planes were destroyed, further depleting Russia's military capabilities.
The implications of this drone attack extend beyond immediate damage; they pose a long-term challenge for Russia in terms of aircraft replacement and operational capacity. As the conflict continues to evolve, the audacity and effectiveness of Ukraine's drone strategy may redefine the dynamics of modern warfare.
