In a historic shift, more than 100 years after the Balfour Declaration supported “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people,” and 77 years after the founding of Israel in the British Mandate of Palestine, the United Kingdom is poised to formally recognize a Palestinian state. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is anticipated to make this significant announcement on Sunday, just two days before the commencement of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This session will focus on Palestinian sovereignty, which has faced decades of occupation and apartheid by Israel.
The UK's decision follows a July statement from the government indicating a change in its long-standing policy of delaying recognition until a moment of maximum impact. This change is contingent upon Israel halting what many perceive as a genocidal war in Gaza, committing to a sustainable peace process that leads to a two-state solution, and facilitating humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave. Unfortunately, the situation in Gaza has deteriorated drastically in recent weeks, as the Israeli military intensifies its efforts to seize control of Gaza City, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis by starving and displacing its inhabitants.
In addition to the turmoil in Gaza, daily incursions by Israeli forces and attacks by settlers continue across the occupied West Bank. Israel is actively pursuing plans to annex Palestinian territories, undermining the possibility of a contiguous Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The Israeli government has criticized the UK and over 75% of UN member states that recognize Palestinian sovereignty, claiming that such recognition “rewards terrorism.”
Britain's Deputy Prime Minister, David Lammy, stated on Sunday that recognizing a Palestinian state will not lead to immediate change, emphasizing that such recognition must be part of a broader peace initiative that has been stagnant for decades. “Any step to recognize it is because we wish to keep alive the prospects of a two-state solution,” Lammy remarked during an interview with Sky News.
On the other hand, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch expressed support for a two-state solution but indicated a preference to align closely with Israel and the United States, its staunch military, financial, and political ally. In a piece for The Telegraph, she suggested that recognizing a Palestinian state without addressing hostage situations would simply reward terrorism.
Amid these political maneuvers, some family members of Israeli captives held in Gaza urged the UK government not to proceed with the recognition until the remaining hostages are returned. They stated in an open letter that this decision complicates efforts to secure the release of their loved ones and represents a “victory” for Hamas.
In a recent meeting, Starmer and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas underscored that Hamas should not play a role in the future leadership of Palestine. The PA's Foreign Minister, Varsen Aghabekian Shahin, expressed that recognizing a Palestinian state sends a crucial message of hope to the Palestinian people, signaling a desire for a free and independent sovereign state. Aghabekian condemned Israel’s actions as a systematic assault aimed at erasing Palestinian existence, culture, and future.
The UK's anticipated recognition of a Palestinian state means that 148 of the 193 UN member states now acknowledge Palestinian statehood, with more countries, including Portugal and France, set to follow suit. Once finalized, the US will remain the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that does not recognize Palestinian sovereignty. Germany has also refrained from this recognition, citing unmet conditions.
In the coming days, France and Saudi Arabia will co-host a one-day summit in New York at the UN, aimed at advancing a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. However, the announcement of Palestinian state recognition may ultimately be symbolic, as all Palestinian territories remain under the military occupation of Israel, which continues to assert its right to self-defense.
According to Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, Western nations are motivated by a desire to appear proactive amidst the escalating crisis but are unlikely to take substantive actions to halt the ongoing genocide in Gaza. “They are responding to pressure from the international community and their local populations,” Elmasry stated in an interview, suggesting that the recognition is more about optics than real change.
