US President Donald Trump recently concluded a lavish tour of Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Each of these energy-rich nations had a long list of expectations from the American leader. While the Gulf nations enjoyed significant rewards from the trip, they also faced several disappointments. According to Dina Esfandiary, Middle East lead for Bloomberg Economics, these countries aimed to demonstrate their openness for business and to strengthen their ties with the US, showcasing their desire to regain favor with America.
The Gulf states are eager to revamp their relationship with the US, transitioning from a traditional transactional oil-for-security model to more robust partnerships based on bilateral investments and shared visions. Jasmine El-Gamal, a Middle East analyst and former Pentagon adviser, described this shift as a “new dawn” in US relations with the Gulf. The trip solidified the foundation for future cooperation, but also highlighted what the Gulf states gained and what they still lack.
Saudi Arabia was particularly keen on formalizing a security agreement with the US during Trump's visit. While the nation did not secure a formalized deal, experts believe it came significantly closer to achieving this goal. Esfandiary noted that although the formal agreement was elusive, discussions surrounding it suggested a continuation of dialogue rather than a conclusion. The stalled defense and trade pact from the previous year remains a complex issue due to Saudi Arabia's demand for Israeli commitments regarding Palestinian statehood.
Despite the lack of a formal security agreement, Saudi Arabia managed to secure a series of arms deals during Trump's visit, which may pave the way for broader agreements in the future. At a ceremonial signing in the opulent Royal Court of Riyadh, Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman formalized several memoranda of understanding and letters of intent, with a notable commitment of $600 billion in US investments. This included a historic defense partnership valued at nearly $142 billion, touted by the White House as the largest defense sales agreement in history.
However, the visit did not yield the anticipated cooperation on a civilian nuclear program, an initiative the kingdom has long sought. Concerns over domestic uranium enrichment raised alarm bells in both the US and Israel regarding potential nuclear weapons proliferation. Additionally, the détente between the US and Syria emerged as a significant diplomatic win for Riyadh, with Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and announcing plans to lift sanctions on Syria, potentially allowing for billions in investments.
Trump's tour marked the first official state visit to Qatar by a sitting US president since George W. Bush in 2003. During this visit, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani expressed optimism that discussions with Trump would bolster strategic cooperation between the two nations. The countries signed multiple agreements, including a $96 billion deal for Qatar to purchase up to 210 Boeing aircraft. Furthermore, Trump received a Boeing 747-8 jet as a gift from Qatar, which raised ethical concerns and accusations that Qatar was attempting to influence the Trump administration.
Despite the criticisms, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani defended the relationship, emphasizing Qatar's longstanding support for the US in various global conflicts. One of the most significant outcomes of this visit was the security assurances provided by Trump, promising to protect Qatar amidst regional threats, particularly from Iran. Qatar, hosting the largest US military base in the Middle East, solidified its position as a key security partner for the United States.
The UAE was focused on advancing investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and technology during Trump's visit. While the UAE achieved several successes, it fell short of obtaining unrestricted access to advanced American microchips, a crucial component for its ambitions in technology. The two countries announced a partnership to construct a massive data center complex in Abu Dhabi, aimed at enhancing AI capabilities with a capacity of 5 gigawatts, enough to power a major city.
Experts highlighted that this new complex would require over 2 million chips, emphasizing the need for access to advanced AI technology to solidify the UAE’s position as a global leader by 2031. Under the Biden administration, the US had imposed tighter restrictions on AI exports to mitigate risks associated with foreign adversaries like China. However, reports suggest progress is being made toward easing these restrictions, potentially paving the way for the UAE to acquire advanced AI semiconductors from the US.
Esfandiary concluded that like the other Gulf states, the UAE viewed Trump's visit as a success. The numerous deals signed and the media attention garnered were significant achievements, fostering confidence in the ongoing relationship between the UAE and the US.
