Next week, President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, aiming to negotiate a peace agreement that may compel Ukraine to make significant territorial concessions. This pivotal summit will take place on August 15, as confirmed by both Trump and a Putin aide, with the primary goal of establishing a truce to end the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has been waged by Russia for over three and a half years.
During a press conference, Trump hinted that the terms of the peace agreement might require Ukraine to cede some of its territory to Russia, a demand that could provoke backlash from both Ukraine and its European allies. “You’re looking at territory that’s been fought over for 3½ years with — you know, a lot of Russians have died, a lot of Ukrainians have died,” Trump stated. He suggested that a "swapping of territories" could lead to mutual benefits.
Adding to the complexity of the negotiations, Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin official, confirmed the meeting's location, stating, “It seems quite logical that our delegation should simply fly across the Bering Strait.” This rapid movement toward a summit follows a significant discussion between Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Putin in Moscow, which lasted three hours. Witkoff emerged from the meeting with a proposal that, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, contained “concrete examples” of Russia's demands to end the war.
The specifics of Trump's suggestion regarding territorial swaps remain ambiguous. Currently, Ukraine retains control over a mere four square miles of Russian land in the western Kursk region, while Russia occupies approximately one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory. In August 2024, Ukraine had managed to reclaim around 500 square miles from Russia, but following a protracted retreat, most of that land has now been lost, leading to diminishing discussions about territorial exchanges.
Historically, Russia has insisted that any peace deal must recognize its annexation of Crimea in 2014, along with four eastern Ukrainian regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. While Russia has achieved complete control over Luhansk, it continues to face challenges in Donetsk, where key cities remain contested. Similarly, although Russian forces were expelled from Kherson city during a Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022, they still occupy parts of the broader region, and have not yet reached the capital of Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that any agreement involving the cession of unoccupied territories to Russia is unacceptable. Trump acknowledged the constitutional limitations Zelensky faces regarding territorial concessions, remarking, “You know, he’s not authorized to do certain things.” He urged the urgency of reaching an agreement, indicating that negotiations are nearing a critical juncture.
Various locations worldwide were considered for the Trump-Putin meeting, including the United Arab Emirates. However, potential venues like Rome posed complications due to the International Criminal Court's warrant for Putin's arrest related to the abduction of Ukrainian children during the war. By choosing Alaska, the meeting sidesteps these legal hurdles.
The more pressing issue lies in whether the U.S. can effectively mediate between Russia's demands and what Ukraine, along with its European partners, is willing to accept. Reports indicate that Russia has suggested Ukraine relinquish control of the entire Donbas region in exchange for a ceasefire. However, it remains unclear whether Russia is prepared to give up any territory in the disputed regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which provide a crucial land corridor to Crimea.
Russia also maintains control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear facility in Europe, which poses significant risks given its inactivity since being captured in 2022. The status of this power plant has been a recurring topic in negotiations, as both sides recognize the potential for catastrophic consequences.
Under Russian proposals, Moscow's annexation of Crimea would be formally recognized as Russian territory. Analysts suggest that despite the diplomatic overtures, Russia's fundamental war objectives remain steadfast: the demilitarization of Ukraine and the removal of what it perceives as Zelensky’s “anti-Russian” regime. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, notes that Moscow views its territorial claims as a restoration of its own rightful lands, with high casualties deemed justified.
European leaders remain apprehensive that this summit may lead to Trump and Putin imposing their terms on Ukraine. A senior European official remarked that Trump has not exerted any pressure on Putin thus far. Experts believe Putin is confident in his military position and aims to subjugate Ukraine, dismantling its military capabilities and preventing NATO membership.
Ukrainian officials had initially hoped that the U.S. would push for a three-way meeting involving Zelensky. However, Putin has shown reluctance to engage directly with Zelensky, viewing such a meeting as an acknowledgment of the Ukrainian leader's legitimacy. As negotiations unfold, the focus remains on achieving a bilateral meeting that is both successful and productive.
