In recent years, families across the U.S. and around the world are making a significant shift towards having fewer children. This change reflects profound alterations in personal priorities and life choices. NPR's insightful series, Population Shift: How Smaller Families Are Changing the World, delves into the underlying causes and far-reaching implications of this trend.
Ashley and Nick Evancho, residents of Grand Island—a suburb of Buffalo, New York—illustrate this growing phenomenon. They cherish their experiences raising their 3-year-old daughter, Sophia. "Watching my daughter run around in the yard is otherworldly for me," Ashley expressed during a recent afternoon at their home. However, the Evanchos have consciously chosen to limit their family size, reflecting a decision that is becoming increasingly prevalent: "One is enough. I don't need another one," Ashley stated, emphasizing her satisfaction with having only one child. Her husband, Nick, an Episcopal priest, echoed her sentiments, noting that larger families seem less feasible in today's economy.
According to the latest data from the United Nations, the average number of children born to families worldwide has diminished by more than half since the 1970s. Economists highlight that the trend of having fewer children is particularly common in relatively affluent nations like the U.S. This shift is contributing to a significantly older population and potential shrinkage in many of the world's largest economies. Economist Melissa Kearney from the University of Notre Dame remarked, "This demographic issue is poised to potentially remake so much of our society."
Experts warn that the rapid aging and gradual decline of populations in wealthier countries could lead to sweeping changes in various aspects of life. This may include working longer before retirement, challenges for business owners in finding employees, and instability in eldercare and health insurance programs. Currently, women in the 15 countries responsible for 75% of global gross domestic product, including the U.S., are having too few children to sustain a stable population. Many of these nations are experiencing what the U.N. classifies as a critically low total fertility rate.
Vladimíra Kantorová, the U.N.'s chief population scientist, explained, "For countries below 1.4 births per woman, we see much faster population decline and a pronounced shift towards an older age distribution." In 2024, the U.S. birth rate fell to a historic low of 1.6 births per woman. Countries like China, Japan, Italy, and South Korea are already witnessing a situation where deaths outnumber births.
Demographers predict that many high-income nations will face a similar population decline if not for high rates of immigration. Nicholas Eberstadt, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, remarked, "It feels like we are watching a science fiction novel unfold." He cautioned that worker shortages, a dwindling number of young consumers, and a growing wave of elderly retirees could challenge fundamental assumptions about global capitalism.
This trend is further complicated by the fact that people in the U.S. and several other countries are living longer. The World Health Organization estimates that the global population aged 80 or older will triple between 2020 and 2050. Eberstadt noted, "Turning the population pyramid upside down basically disrupts the business model that we've had in modern life for as long as we can remember."
The demographic transition has been evident in the U.S. for decades. In the 1960s, the average American woman had between three and four children. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that the typical woman is now expected to have only one or two children, with an increasing number of families opting to remain child-free. Kearney raised an important question: "Do we want to be a more dynamic, forward-looking economy where people are optimistic about the future and their ability to have kids?"
As birth rates decline, U.S. population growth has already begun to stall, with projections indicating a potential shrinkage later this century. The median age of Americans has risen dramatically, from 28.1 in 1970 to a record high of 39.1 last year. Many rural communities are already grappling with significant demographic challenges. Jeremy Evans, head of the Franklin County Industrial Development Agency in rural upstate New York, noted that his region has lost approximately 10% of its population since 2010, primarily due to young people leaving and a lack of newborns, which led to the closure of a local maternity ward.
Despite a low unemployment rate of 3.8%, Franklin County faces a shortage of workers to fill available jobs. Evans emphasized the necessity of attracting young people, stating, "We have to make this the No. 1 focus." However, economists warn that recruiting younger workers will become increasingly difficult as smaller families continue to transform the American demographic landscape. Last year, the number of children in the U.S. decreased slightly, while the population of seniors surged to 61 million.
The demographic shift in the U.S. is not an isolated phenomenon; it poses challenges for America's major trading partners as well. Lant Pritchett, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics, remarked that this population shift is particularly impactful in Europe and parts of Asia. He noted, "Basic assumptions about capitalism and economic growth evolved when nearly every country was experiencing rapid population increases. Now that era is over."
China, the world's second-largest economy, is experiencing the most dramatic population changes. Pritchett predicts that China's working-age population will plummet by 2050, losing over 211 million workers. Young professionals in China, like Mia Li, are already feeling the effects, stating that decreased home-buying demand will drive housing prices down. Li expressed concerns about the financial implications of parenthood in an uncertain economy.
Some experts believe that fears surrounding shrinking families may be overstated. Harvard economist Claudia Goldin argues that many concerns stem from a political backlash against immigration and women's empowerment. While she acknowledges potential economic impacts from an aging workforce, she is not overly worried, asserting that trade-offs will always exist and there is no optimal birth rate.
Nonetheless, many economists assert that nations and companies must adapt to remain stable and prosperous amid these demographic changes. Strategies may include attracting migrant workers or enhancing labor force efficiency through education, automation, and artificial intelligence. In response to declining birth rates, several countries have introduced initiatives aimed at encouraging larger families. For instance, the Trump administration proposed a package of incentives, including an expanded child tax credit.
Countries like Greece are taking more drastic measures, implementing extensive tax packages to combat rapid depopulation. Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Greece's minister of economy and finance, described this issue as an existential threat. However, many experts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing birth rates, noting that societal improvements—such as women's economic progress and reduced teenage pregnancies—are driving the trend toward smaller families.
Ashley Evancho reinforces this perspective, suggesting that families like hers are unlikely to expand, regardless of government incentives. "The opportunity cost to my career or education of having more children is so much higher," she explained, indicating that the economy may need to undergo fundamental changes to adapt to a future with smaller families.
The ongoing population shift presents complex challenges and opportunities, urging policymakers and societies to rethink traditional structures and adapt to a new demographic reality.
