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The Future of the Catholic Church: What to Expect from the Next Papal Conclave

4/23/2025
Pope Francis' death triggers a historic conclave with a diverse group of electors. As cardinals gather from around the world, the future of the Catholic Church hangs in the balance.
The Future of the Catholic Church: What to Expect from the Next Papal Conclave
Explore the unprecedented dynamics of the upcoming papal conclave as cardinals from diverse backgrounds gather to elect Pope Francis' successor.

Pope Francis' Death: A Historic Transition for the Catholic Church

The passing of Pope Francis has initiated a profound and historic transition within the Roman Catholic Church. Cardinals from around the globe are now gathering at the Vatican to mourn the loss of Francis and, eventually, to cast their votes for his successor. This moment marks the beginning of a new chapter in church leadership, and the composition of the current College of Cardinals—and the electors who will participate in the crucial conclave—is unprecedented in many ways.

Understanding the Cardinal Electors

At present, there are 135 cardinal electors eligible to vote in the conclave. It is important to note that not every cardinal can participate in this voting process; only those who are under the age of 80 are eligible. Of the total 252 cardinals at the time of Francis' death, 135 meet this criterion. Remarkably, Pope Francis appointed 108 of these 135 cardinal electors, as per the Vatican's official records.

According to established church rules, the conclave is expected to commence within 15 to 20 days following the death or resignation of a pope. While cardinals can initiate proceedings before the 15-day period, they must ensure that all electors are present before doing so.

A Shift in Global Representation

Under Pope Francis' leadership, the College of Cardinals has evolved to more accurately reflect the global landscape of the Catholic Church. This adjustment is particularly significant, as it is the first time in history that the conclave has become less European in its composition. As noted by Gregg Gassman, a librarian and editor of the Pontifacts podcast, the current makeup of the college showcases a broader geographical representation.

Pope Francis expanded the ranks of the cardinals by appointing prelates from nations such as Haiti, Laos, and Rwanda, which previously had no cardinals. Furthermore, Asia's representation within the College of Cardinals has surged to 17%, with 23 electors, making it the second-largest region after Europe. The Vatican reports that at least 70 countries are now represented by elector cardinals, including 10 from the United States.

Comparing Historical Contexts

The upcoming conclave stands in stark contrast to the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis, which included cardinals from just 48 countries. At that time, Europe accounted for approximately 40% of the electors, despite comprising only over 20% of the global Catholic community. In March, the Vatican highlighted that Europe’s 53 electors represent more than twice the number from any other region, yet the composition of the new conclave signifies a century of transformation in church demographics.

Historically, the 1922 conclave was exclusively European, with only a few cardinals from the U.S. and Canada. In fact, three of them were unable to reach Rome in time due to travel limitations. This prompted the church to revise travel rules, and soon after, advancements in air travel further impacted the dynamics of conclaves.

The Complex Dynamics of the Upcoming Conclave

The 2025 conclave promises to be a complex and multifaceted gathering, as experts like Massimo Faggioli, a church historian at Villanova University, have indicated. Faggioli emphasizes the intricate interplay of factors influencing the electors, making it challenging to forecast the outcome, including the agenda of the conclave.

Experts express concern that the size of the College of Cardinals, now exceeding 130 electors, may complicate consensus-building. Many of these electors are unfamiliar with one another as they rarely convene outside of major celebrations. This lack of familiarity could lead to factional divisions within the conclave, as noted by Kurt Martens, a professor of canon law at the Catholic University of America.

The Role of the Dean in the Conclave

The responsibility of convening the cardinals and overseeing the conclave falls to the dean of the College of Cardinals. In the film "Conclave," Ralph Fiennes portrays this influential role. The dean has considerable sway over the proceedings, presiding over a special Mass and delivering a homily that can guide the themes and priorities for electors to consider. Historically, some deans have even been elected as pope, such as Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, who became Pope Benedict XVI in 2005.

The current dean, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, aged 91, will officiate the high-profile Mass; however, he will not participate in the conclave itself. The conclave will instead be overseen by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the most senior elector and former secretary of state under Pope Francis. As highlighted by Martens, the weight of responsibility on the electors is immense, as they are tasked with selecting the next pope during a period filled with uncertainty and significant global change.

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