On the night of January 8, preliminary unconfirmed reports indicated that Russian forces may have executed an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike targeting Lviv Oblast. However, as of now, Ukrainian officials have not verified these claims. The Ukrainian Air Force issued a missile alert across all of Ukraine around 23:30 local time, citing threats of a Russian ballistic missile launch from Kapustin Yar, a site where Russia reportedly stores Oreshnik missiles. This site was also the launch point for the first Russian Oreshnik strike against Ukraine in November 2024.
Furthermore, the BBC’s Ukrainian service reported that unofficial monitoring channels indicated launch activity at the Kapustin Yar missile launch site in Astrakhan Oblast. Various Ukrainian news outlets and social media platforms noted that monitoring channels on Telegram speculated about the possibility of a Russian Oreshnik strike. A source on Telegram shared footage purportedly depicting multiple strikes in rapid succession, potentially showcasing the Oreshnik’s multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload.
Claims from Russian military bloggers suggested that an Oreshnik missile hit a gas field and storage facility near Stryi, Lviv Oblast. Lviv City Mayor Andriy Sadovyi reported a series of powerful explosions in the city, while Lviv Oblast Military Administration Head Maksym Kozytskyi confirmed that Russian forces targeted a critical infrastructure facility in the region. Sadovyi later mentioned that it remains uncertain whether the Oreshnik was indeed used against Lviv Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously warned on January 8 of a potential "new massive Russian strike" planned for the night of January 8 into January 9. Additionally, the US Embassy in Kyiv City reported receiving information about a significant airstrike expected within the following days. Historically, Russian forces have conducted only one other known strike using the Oreshnik, which targeted Dnipro City on November 21, 2024, as part of a larger missile strike campaign against critical infrastructure.
The Kremlin has consistently leveraged the November 2024 Oreshnik strike and made subsequent threats regarding its use against Ukraine as part of a strategy aimed at dissuading Western support for Ukraine. Since Fall 2025, Russia has intensified efforts to threaten the West with Oreshnik missile capabilities. On January 8, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), dismissed the security guarantees being finalized by the United States and Europe for Ukraine as "militaristic declarations" from an "axis of war." Zakharova warned that any Western military deployments in Ukraine would be considered a "foreign intervention" and legitimate targets for the Russian military.
Zakharova reiterated the Kremlin's demands for any future peace agreements to address the war's alleged "root causes," including stipulations for Ukrainian neutrality, "demilitarization," and "denazification," alongside protections for ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. Additionally, she called for recognition of the "territorial realities" resulting from Russia's illegal referendums in 2014 and 2022, which include Crimea and various regions of Ukraine.
In a related development, the US Coast Guard seized the Russian-flagged oil tanker Bella-1 on January 7. The owner of the vessel is reportedly connected to Russian efforts to evade sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector. Previously sanctioned for collaborating with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Bella-1 was re-registered as the Marinera under the ownership of Russian company Burevestmarine in late December 2025.
Reports indicate that the owner, Ilya Bugai, is also the CEO of Rusneftekhimtorg, linked to various entities previously sanctioned by the US for violations against Venezuelan oil. Despite attempts to distance itself from the Bella-1, the Russian MFA condemned the seizure, asserting that US sanctions against Venezuelan oil are illegitimate and claiming that Russia had granted the vessel temporary permission to fly a Russian flag.
The Russian military command is reportedly continuing to establish new military units but is likely facing challenges in staffing them to full capacity due to high losses in Ukraine. Reports from various sources suggest that recruitment efforts are underway for units like the 1244th Guards Artillery Brigade and the 76th Rocket Artillery Brigade, with plans to equip these units with advanced artillery and reconnaissance technologies.
Despite the formation of these new units, analysts predict that the Russian military will struggle to maintain their doctrinal end strength, particularly as the conflict continues to escalate. As fighting persists in Ukraine, these new units may be smaller than anticipated.
The United Kingdom has stepped up its support for Ukraine by supplying critical air defense systems amid escalating Russian drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure. Recent reports confirm that the UK delivered 13 Raven air defense systems and two prototype Gravehawk air defense systems to Ukraine, with additional systems expected to arrive shortly. This support aims to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities as it faces ongoing threats from Russian long-range strikes.
As the situation evolves, the dynamics of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia remain tense. The potential use of the Oreshnik missile system by Russia, ongoing military recruitment challenges, and international responses highlight the complexities involved in the current geopolitical landscape. Continued vigilance and support for Ukraine will be crucial as the situation develops.