In a grand vision reminiscent of The Marshall Plan, Iran sought to establish its influence in the Middle East by reconstructing war-ravaged Syria. This ambitious plan aimed to mirror the successful U.S. strategy of investing billions to revitalize post-World War II Europe. A recently uncovered 33-page Iranian study, dated May 2022, details this vision, drawing parallels to America's historic economic initiative. The document outlines how Iran intended to create a dependency on its economic support, much like the U.S. did with European nations.
Discovered by Reuters reporters during a visit to Iran’s looted embassy in Damascus, this study is part of a larger trove of documents that include letters, contracts, and infrastructure plans. These documents reveal the extent of Iran's investment in supporting President Bashar al-Assad during Syria's ongoing civil war. The ambitious program was described as a potential “$400 billion opportunity” for Iran, with expectations to build an economic empire while solidifying its influence over its ally.
However, Iran's plans faced a significant setback when opposition rebels succeeded in toppling Assad in December 2022. Following this, Iranian paramilitaries, diplomats, and businesses hastily retreated, leaving the embassy in Damascus ransacked by locals celebrating Assad's downfall. The documents left behind highlight the myriad challenges Iranian investors encountered, including militant attacks, local corruption, and stringent Western sanctions.
Among the abandoned projects detailed in the embassy files was a €411 million power plant in coastal Latakia, which remains idle. Other ventures, such as an oil extraction project in eastern Syria and a collapsed Euphrates River rail bridge, illustrate the difficulties faced by Iranian companies. The total outstanding debts owed to Iranian businesses by the Syrian government at the end of the war were estimated to be at least $178 million, with former Iranian lawmakers suggesting the total debt exceeded $30 billion.
Businessman Hassan Shakhesi, who lost €16 million in vehicle parts left at Latakia port, expressed his disillusionment: “I’d set up an office and home in Syria. That’s gone. I hope Iran’s long history with Syria isn’t just wiped out.”
Ultimately, Iran's aspirations to replicate the success of the Marshall Plan in Syria have faltered, reflecting the broader failures of U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran's early involvement in Syria's civil war was intended to deepen its influence in the region, particularly as a gateway to the Mediterranean. However, the fallout from Assad’s regime collapse and the subsequent Iranian withdrawal has left both nations grappling with the repercussions.
As the new Syrian government, led by the former rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, seeks to rebuild, it faces multiple challenges, including stalled infrastructure projects. Iranian government officials have indicated they expect the new leadership to honor past obligations, but the priority appears to lie elsewhere. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new president, noted, “The Syrian people have a wound caused by Iran, and we need a lot of time to heal.”
The execution of Iran's economic plans for Syria was largely entrusted to Abbas Akbari, a construction manager from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Akbari was appointed to lead a unit aimed at enhancing trade and recovering investments. Correspondence found at the embassy indicates he was involved in numerous projects and faced significant logistical challenges.
Despite the setbacks, Iran continued to explore opportunities in Syria, signing agreements for zero-tariff trade and local currency transactions to circumvent sanctions. However, the reality remains that Iran's investments have not yielded the expected returns, with many Iranian companies losing interest in the Syrian market due to payment issues and the complexities of Syrian bureaucracy.
As Iran's influence wanes, other nations, including Turkey and Russia, are eager to fill the void left by its retreat. The future of Iranian investments in Syria now rests on navigating a complex landscape of local politics, economic challenges, and the emerging dynamics of a post-Assad era.
