Hurricane Erin has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. The next official update is scheduled for 8 a.m. ET. Despite this temporary weakening, meteorologists anticipate that Erin will re-intensify after completing an eyewall replacement cycle, a natural occurrence that often leads to a brief decrease in strength followed by a rebound.
As of the most recent report, Hurricane Erin is situated approximately 140 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and about 330 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. The storm is currently moving west-northwest at a speed of 14 mph. Erin's expansive outer bands are generating heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, prompting considerable flash flood warnings in the region.
Radar estimates indicate that between 3 to 6 inches of rain have already fallen over St. John and St. Thomas, while northern sections of Puerto Rico have reported between 2 to 4 inches. Authorities expect flood watches to remain in effect until Monday morning. Isolated storm totals of 6 to 8 inches are still possible as Erin's outer bands continue to sweep through these areas, raising the risk of quick flooding, landslides, and mudslides.
As Erin progresses west-southwest on Sunday, the storm's outer bands are predicted to deliver rain and winds gusting up to 50 mph across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, conditions are expected to improve later this afternoon for the U.S. Virgin Islands and by tonight for Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, tropical storm warnings are currently in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, as Erin's outer bands are anticipated to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to these areas. Additionally, tropical storm watches are in place for the southeast Bahamas.
Erin is expected to slow down and begin a turn to the north later today and into the early part of the work week. As of early Sunday, the forecasted path remains consistent with previous days, aided by the weakening Bermuda High and an approaching cold front that will sweep through the East Coast. Weather models are largely in agreement, showing Erin steering between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, which should mitigate any direct impacts on the mainland.
As Hurricane Erin grows in size while moving northward this week, dangerous surf and rip currents are anticipated along the U.S. eastern coastline, extending from the Space Coast of Florida to coastal New England. The swelling size of the storm is expected to generate larger wave action, with particularly high waves—ranging from 8 to 12 feet—likely along the Carolina coastline by Thursday. This increase in wave activity poses not only a risk of dangerous surf but also significant beach erosion that could threaten beachfront properties.
