In a dramatic turn of events, panic and confusion have engulfed Tehran, Iran's capital, as Israel issues urgent warnings for civilians to evacuate the city. As the conflict between Iran and Israel enters its fifth day, the situation has escalated to a critical level. Long lines of vehicles, filled with families fleeing the turmoil, stretched for miles at gas stations, as residents scrambled to secure fuel for their journeys. Major roads leading out of the city were congested with bumper-to-bumper traffic, reflecting the growing desperation among the population.
On Tuesday, the Israeli military announced the initiation of a large-scale attack on Iranian soil. Dozens of fighter jets targeted 12 different sites, marking a significant escalation in military operations. Zahra, a 28-year-old unemployed fashion designer from Tehran, shared her plight with NPR, revealing her attempts to leave the city for her hometown in western Iran. However, she found all routes blocked. "We don't know what we should do. What decisions can we or should we make? We don't have internet. We cannot even hear the news," she expressed through voice notes, which took over 18 hours to send due to poor connectivity.
In a striking development, former President Donald Trump took to his social media platform late Monday, urging civilians in Tehran to evacuate immediately. "IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON," he declared, emphasizing the urgency of the situation. He further speculated about the U.S. knowledge of the whereabouts of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hinting at potential military implications. Trump's early departure from the G7 summit in Canada was attributed to the escalating conflict, as he stated, "I have to be back as soon as I can."
As the situation unfolds, several critical points emerge regarding the conflict:
Many civilians have tragically found themselves trapped amidst the violence. Israel insists that its military actions are aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, perceived as an existential threat. However, these strikes have resulted in significant civilian casualties, with reports indicating over 200 deaths, including at least 20 children, according to the Iranian government. Dena, a 48-year-old Tehran resident, expressed her frustration at the lack of information provided by the government regarding safety measures, stating, "They don't give us any practical tips."
Israel faces considerable obstacles in its efforts to dismantle Iran's nuclear program. Key facilities, such as those located in Natanz and Fordo, are situated underground, complicating Israel's military capabilities. Experts believe that while Israeli airstrikes may have damaged centrifuges at Natanz, the Fordo plant remains largely intact due to its deep burial. Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, noted that only the U.S. possesses the necessary technology to effectively target such fortified locations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the primary goal of the attacks is to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. However, there is speculation about whether the Israeli government aims for regime change. Analysts suggest that while Netanyahu hinted at the potential elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader, it is unlikely that such a drastic measure is currently part of Israel's strategy. Experts believe Israel is pursuing a "mowing the grass" approach, aiming to incrementally set back Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The conflict raises concerns about a possible escalation involving the United States. While Israel utilizes advanced U.S.-made military technology, including F-35 fighter jets, it lacks the heavy munitions needed to target Iran's fortified sites effectively. Analysts warn that without U.S. support, Israel may struggle to achieve its objectives. The U.S. has already deployed military assets to the region as tensions rise, but the specifics of potential U.S. intervention remain uncertain. Trump indicated a strong stance against any attacks on U.S. forces, stating that the military would respond with full force if necessary.
The situation in Tehran remains tense, with civilians facing uncertainty and danger as military actions escalate. As Israel continues its campaign against Iran's nuclear program, the implications for regional stability and international relations could be profound. The global community watches closely, aware that the conflict's trajectory may shape the future of diplomatic negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions.
