The ceasefire in Gaza appears to be officially over, marking a troubling turn in the ongoing conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sought to lay the blame for the renewed fighting, which resulted in the deaths of over 400 Palestinians on March 18, 2025, squarely on Hamas. He ominously warned that this violence is “only the beginning.” However, the roots of this renewed conflict are deeply intertwined with Israeli domestic politics.
Since the inception of the ceasefire in January, many experts in Israeli politics, including myself, have identified a significant hurdle to its second phase. This phase, which involves a full withdrawal of Israeli military forces from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of remaining hostages, faces staunch opposition from the far-right factions within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition. The ideology of these factions contradicts the proposed withdrawal, as they advocate for maintaining Israeli control over Gaza and pushing as many Palestinians out as possible.
Notably, members of Netanyahu's own party, Likud, have expressed support for President Donald Trump's controversial stance that Palestinians should be cleared from Gaza to facilitate a large-scale reconstruction project led by the United States. As an expert in Israeli history and a professor of peace studies, I contend that the far-right vision for post-conflict Gaza, shared by some in Netanyahu's government, stands in stark opposition to the ceasefire plan. Alarmingly, this view seems to resonate with certain factions within the U.S. administration, which has been a de facto sponsor of the ceasefire.
While it is true that Hamas has played a role in manipulating the ceasefire's first phase, turning hostage releases into propaganda spectacles, the resumption of violence is fundamentally linked to ongoing domestic tensions in Israel. These currents predate even the devastating attack on October 7, 2023, which triggered the most severe conflict between Israelis and Palestinians since the 1948 war. The roots of this turmoil can be traced back to Netanyahu’s attempts to shift Israel’s political system. His efforts to strengthen the executive and legislative branches while undermining the judiciary have created a precarious environment.
Since Netanyahu's hard-right government took office in January 2023, significant strides have been made to transform independent institutions, such as the attorney general’s office and the police, into compliant entities loyal to the government. A massive protest movement in 2023 initially slowed Netanyahu’s efforts to overhaul the judiciary, but the Hamas massacre on October 7 shifted the narrative. Many hoped this would unite the country against the backdrop of national unity; instead, Netanyahu's government pursued a different agenda.
After a failed hostage deal in November 2023, skepticism grew regarding whether Netanyahu was genuinely interested in peace or merely using the conflict to bolster his political standing and further his judicial overhaul agenda. His ongoing legal troubles, stemming from indictments for breach of trust, fraud, and corruption, have provided him with a strategic opportunity to delay legal proceedings while the nation is embroiled in war.
As the ceasefire deteriorates, Netanyahu faces mounting pressure from the ultra-Orthodox factions of his coalition, particularly regarding military draft exemptions. The public outcry for an end to these exemptions has intensified since the war's onset. In a bid to secure votes for the annual budget—critical for preventing fresh elections—Netanyahu has turned to far-right elements of his coalition for support. This shift, marked by the return of the Otzma Yehudit party to the coalition, signifies a troubling trend: the government seems disinterested in implementing the second phase of the ceasefire plan, effectively ending hopes for a peaceful resolution.
While domestic politics play a crucial role in the conflict's resurgence, the changing stance of the U.S. administration cannot be overlooked. The transition from Joe Biden to Donald Trump has influenced the ceasefire’s trajectory, with Trump signaling support for increasing military pressure on Hamas. By attributing the resumption of hostilities to Hamas, Trump is implicitly endorsing the Israeli government's narrative, complicating prospects for lasting peace.
The majority of Israelis are advocating for an end to the conflict, a completion of the ceasefire agreement, and Netanyahu's resignation. The anti-government protest movement is witnessing a resurgence, with widespread demonstrations against the renewed fighting in Gaza and the government’s attempts to remove security chief Ronen Bar. This growing dissent highlights a significant divide between the Israeli populace and their government, exacerbating the internal crisis that has persisted since the onset of the war.
As Israel grapples with unprecedented challenges, it becomes evident that Netanyahu’s approach may ultimately undermine the country’s stability. By betting on prolonged conflict as a means to secure his political future, Netanyahu risks deepening the divisions within Israeli society and hindering prospects for peace. The intersection of domestic politics and international relations will be critical in shaping the future of both Gaza and Israel.
