NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has expressed significant doubts regarding the feasibility of SpaceX's Starship meeting the critical 2027 deadline for the Artemis III lunar landing. Recent reports indicate that the panel is concerned about the likelihood that SpaceX's Human Landing System (HLS) will not be operational in time for this ambitious mission. The Artemis III mission aims to return astronauts to the Moon, marking a significant milestone in NASA's lunar exploration efforts.
Originally scheduled for 2024, the Artemis III mission has already faced delays, with its target date now pushed to 2027. The mission requires astronauts to launch aboard NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, rendezvous with the HLS variant of SpaceX's Starship in lunar orbit, and subsequently descend to the lunar surface. However, the timeline for launching the first crewed mission, Artemis II, has also slipped, with the first astronauts not expected to launch until 2026.
While some of the delays experienced thus far are beyond SpaceX's control, a further slip to the 2027 lunar landing would be detrimental not only to SpaceX's reputation but also to the United States' ambitions of returning to the Moon before China executes its own human landing attempt. A report from The New York Times suggests that SpaceX's Starship may not be ready until as late as 2032, a timeline that has not been well-received by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who dismissed the report as unworthy of attention.
The ASAP's concerns are substantiated by the technical challenges that remain for SpaceX. Members of the panel acknowledged SpaceX's progress but highlighted the substantial amount of work left to ensure the safety and reliability of the HLS variant before it can carry astronauts to the Moon's surface. Currently, one more test flight of Starship Version 2 is planned, after which SpaceX will transition to testing Version 3. This latest iteration must demonstrate its reliability before the company can begin developing fuel depots in Earth orbit.
Moreover, the logistics of refueling Starship in orbit involve deploying an unspecified number of tankers, which adds another layer of complexity to the mission. Once in lunar orbit, Starship must successfully rendezvous with NASA's SLS before executing a landing. The HLS variant of the Starship is projected to stand between 50 and 55 meters tall, significantly taller than the Apollo Lunar Module, which measured approximately 7 meters. The Apollo 15 Lunar Module's landing resulted in an 11-degree tilt, raising concerns about the stability of the much larger Starship under similar conditions.
To facilitate a successful landing, experts suggest that a flat surface may be necessary, which could require the deployment of a rover akin to a JCB to prepare the landing site. However, there are currently no plans for such a rover within SpaceX's development roadmap. The challenges extend beyond just the Starship itself; the lunar spacesuits being developed by Axiom Space are also on a tight schedule, and any delays in their development could further push back the Artemis III landing date, even if NASA's SLS is ready on time.
In conclusion, while the Artemis III mission holds the promise of re-establishing a human presence on the Moon, significant hurdles remain. As the timeline progresses, the collaboration between NASA and SpaceX will be crucial in overcoming these challenges and ensuring a successful lunar landing in 2027.
