In the near future, possibly as early as next year, SpaceX plans to conduct a groundbreaking test: flying one of its colossal Starship rockets from low-Earth orbit back to its launch pad in South Texas. A successful return and midair catch at the launch tower would showcase a pivotal capability that is central to Elon Musk's vision of achieving a fully reusable rocket system.
To realize this ambitious goal, SpaceX faces significant geographical challenges. Unlike rockets launched over the open ocean from Cape Canaveral, Florida, those departing from South Texas must navigate a narrow corridor to avoid populated land areas downrange. To date, all ten of the rocket's test flights have originated from Texas, targeting splashdowns in either the Indian or Pacific Oceans. These trajectories have not allowed the rocket to complete a full orbit around Earth; rather, they follow an arcing path before gravity pulls it back into the atmosphere.
If the next two test flights proceed successfully, SpaceX is expected to attempt sending the soon-to-be-unveiled Starship V3 rocket into low-Earth orbit. This new version of Starship will stand at an impressive 171 feet (52.1 meters) tall, slightly taller than its current design. Together with its Super Heavy booster, the entire assembly will reach a height of 408 feet (124.4 meters). Constructed from stainless steel, Starship is engineered for complete reusability, an essential feature for the future of space travel.
While SpaceX has successfully recovered and reused Super Heavy boosters, the team will not be ready to retrieve the Starship upper stage until next year at the earliest. This milestone is crucial following the achievement of orbital flight. SpaceX intends to bring the Starship back home, aiming for a catch at the launch site located at Starbase, Texas, situated on the southernmost tip of the Texas Gulf Coast, near the US-Mexico border.
Launching a Starship from low-Earth orbit back to Starbase necessitates that the rocket traverses parts of Mexico and South Texas. The flight path will take the rocket east over the Gulf of Mexico, requiring it to approach Starbase from the west during its landing phase. Recently published maps by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) illustrate potential flight paths for the initial returning Starships as they re-enter the atmosphere.
The FAA released a document outlining SpaceX's request to modify its government license for additional launch and reentry trajectories. This draft includes a tiered environmental assessment evaluating the potential impacts of the new flight paths on aviation emissions, air quality, noise, hazardous materials, and socioeconomics. According to the FAA, the new proposed flight paths are not expected to significantly affect these areas.
The FAA's environmental review is just one component of the approval process for new commercial launch or reentry licenses. Critical factors include public safety, national security, and insurance requirements. Although the FAA has not commented specifically on public safety concerns regarding SpaceX's proposed trajectories, these issues may arise as the company seeks to secure approval for flights over populated areas in Mexico.
The FAA stipulates that a commercial launch and reentry must not present a greater than 1 in 10,000 chance of harming a member of the public. Furthermore, the risk to any individual should not exceed 1 in 1 million. The potential danger lies in the possibility of Starship disintegrating upon reentry, which could result in debris falling to the ground, as witnessed following two previous launch failures.
To mitigate public risk, SpaceX's proposed flight paths are designed to avoid large urban areas. Maps indicate that during reentry, Starship would initially descend over the Pacific Ocean, then traverse Baja California and Mexico's interior, bypassing major cities with populations of around one million, such as Hermosillo and Chihuahua. The trajectory ensures that the rocket will fly well north of the Monterrey metropolitan area, home to over 5.3 million residents, before reaching the Rio Grande Valley near Texas cities like McAllen and Brownsville.
Launching Starship into an appropriate orbit for a safe reentry requires precise calculations regarding inclination and trajectory. All prior test flights have launched eastward, navigating between South Florida and Cuba, before heading over the North Atlantic Ocean. To set up for reentry, the rocket must alter its trajectory over the Gulf of Mexico.
Two possible paths for Starship's launch have been identified by the FAA. One route heads southeast, flying between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, while the other takes a northeastern direction, crossing over North Florida before entering the Atlantic Ocean. Both paths avoid the largest metropolitan areas situated along the flight route.
As SpaceX progresses with these test flights, the FAA plans to minimize airspace closures associated with Starship launches. The proposed reentry path over Mexico would necessitate the closure of approximately 4,200 miles of airspace, potentially affecting up to 200 commercial flights for each mission. SpaceX aims to establish a regular launch cadence, initially targeting multiple flights per month, then progressing to weekly and daily launches.
Ultimately, SpaceX's ambitious plans include not only frequent Starship flights but also missions to Mars and NASA contracts for lunar landings. However, all these objectives hinge on SpaceX's ability to consistently launch and recover Starships, a challenge that engineers are eagerly working to overcome.
