Nintendo is tempering expectations for its Switch 2 sales estimates, despite the overwhelming launch demand for the new console. In its recent earnings report, the company announced projected sales of 15 million Switch 2 units within the first year, concluding in March 2026. This figure falls short of analyst predictions, which estimated sales at approximately 16.8 million units.
While Nintendo did not provide specific reasons for its conservative forecast, it is likely influenced by several factors, including ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the company's historically cautious approach to sales predictions. Nintendo’s strategy has typically favored realism over optimism, which may be impacting its current estimates.
The demand for the Switch 2 has been robust right from the start, with resellers quickly selling out of initial stock. Nintendo has also indicated that its own pre-orders might not be fulfilled until after the scheduled launch on June 5th. This indicates a significant level of pent-up demand for the new console, especially after the eight-year success of the original Switch model.
Despite the initial demand, last month Nintendo faced challenges that led to a delay in pre-orders. Concerns over potential tariffs imposed on electronic goods during the Trump administration contributed to this decision. Additionally, the console's $450 price tag has sparked buyer complaints, yet the company has still received an impressive 2.2 million applications for pre-orders in Japan alone, a figure that far exceeds Nintendo’s expectations.
To date, Nintendo has sold over 150 million Switch consoles, with approximately 17.79 million units sold in the first 13 months of the original’s launch. The Switch 2 appears to be on a similar trajectory, even with the company's conservative sales estimates. Given the current climate, it is crucial for Nintendo to have a successful year, especially as overall sales have seen a significant decline of 30.3 percent compared to last year—a trend typical when a new console is on the horizon.
