In a recent public meeting held on September 19, 2023, NASA's safety advisers expressed significant doubts regarding the lunar lander version of SpaceX’s Starship, specifically its ability to support the ambitious Artemis 3 mission as planned for 2027. Members of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel indicated that they believe the Human Landing System (HLS) variant of Starship may be “years late” in its development.
Panelist Paul Hill highlighted the challenges faced by the HLS during the meeting, stating that their concerns were informed by a recent visit to SpaceX's Starbase facility. Along with fellow panelists, including former astronauts Charlie Precourt and Kent Rominger, Hill assessed the current status of the development process. He emphasized, “The HLS schedule is significantly challenged and, in our estimation, could be years late for a 2027 Artemis 3 moon landing.”
One of the major roadblocks identified is the need to demonstrate cryogenic propellant transfer, a crucial process for refueling Starship in low Earth orbit before it embarks on its lunar journey. This vital work has been hindered by delays in the third version of Starship—the first iteration capable of such transfers—and ongoing enhancements to the version 3 Raptor engine, which powers the spacecraft. Although Hill refrained from detailing the specific problems or their implications, the situation remains a significant concern.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, speaking at the World Space Business Week on September 16, echoed these worries, expressing that the challenges of propellant transfer are more daunting than the task of docking Starships in orbit. “Hopefully, it’s not as hard as some of my engineers think it could be,” she remarked, reflecting the complexity of the tasks ahead.
Despite the prevailing concerns regarding schedule delays, the panel members acknowledged SpaceX’s impressive accomplishments. Hill commended the rapid launch tempo of the Falcon 9 rocket, which has been largely driven by the demand for Starlink satellite deployments. He noted that this high launch frequency has fostered “unprecedented experience in spacecraft and booster manufacturing, launch preparation, and flight operations.”
However, Hill cautioned that the competing priorities between Starship and HLS development could negatively affect the overall Artemis schedule. He pointed out that no other organization, whether governmental or private, possesses a similar combination of factors contributing to such a high manufacturing and flight tempo, which in turn enhances reliability and reduces costs.
During the meeting, panel member Bill Bray raised additional concerns regarding the overall trajectory of the Artemis program. While he confirmed that preparations for Artemis 2, scheduled to launch in early 2026, are on track, he described the prospects for Artemis 3 and subsequent missions as “uncertain and a little murky.” This ambiguity poses risks to the program's safety and risk management moving forward.
Bray specifically highlighted the aggressive timelines for both the HLS and the development of new lunar spacesuits by Axiom Space. “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement and/or significant delay,” he warned. He further emphasized the critical importance of these programs in the context of the overall mission schedule, stating, “These programs remain essential components on the critical path for the success of Artemis 3 and subsequent missions.”
As the panel deliberates the future of the Starship HLS program, they have committed to conducting a comprehensive review, including a detailed fact-finding mission regarding the design and its capability for cryogenic propellant transfer. This ongoing assessment will play a crucial role in determining the viability of Starship’s support for the Artemis missions and the timeline for lunar exploration.
