Amid escalating tensions between billionaire Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump, Musk recently threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft, a fleet of vehicles developed by his technology company, SpaceX. Since 2012, various models of the Dragon spacecraft have been pivotal in transporting both cargo and crew to the International Space Station (ISS). SpaceX has emerged as a crucial ally in NASA's Artemis program, which aims to establish a sustainable human presence on the moon and facilitate future manned missions to Mars.
While Musk quickly retracted his initial threat in a subsequent post on X, the possibility remains that the world’s richest man could alter his stance once more. Experts in space science have conveyed to ABC News that the partnership between NASA and SpaceX has been vital for successful missions, and any fracture in this relationship could create a significant void. Professor Moriba Jah from the University of Texas at Austin emphasized the risks, stating, "The United States has uniquely put all of its eggs into the Elon Musk basket in terms of a sovereign, uniquely American vehicle to get people into and out of space. Now that relationship's severed; it leaves the United States completely vulnerable."
The collaboration between NASA and SpaceX began in 2008 when the federal space agency initiated the Commercial Resupply Services program. This program was designed to facilitate the delivery of cargo and supplies to the ISS using commercially operated spacecraft. NASA signed a contract with SpaceX, granting the company 12 flights valued at approximately $1.6 billion.
Mark Jernigan, executive director of the Rice Space Institute in Houston, highlighted his involvement in launching NASA's commercial cargo program, which aimed to shift responsibilities and redefine operational paradigms within NASA. "The idea was to specify what kind of cargo you wanted to launch, and how much you wanted…," Jernigan explained. Initially, multiple countries, including Japan, Europe, the U.S., and Russia, contributed to cargo deliveries, but currently, only the U.S. and Russia continue to do so.
The original Dragon spacecraft, known as Dragon 1, provided cargo services to the ISS for a decade from 2012 to 2020 before its retirement. SpaceX introduced Dragon 2, which consists of two versions: one that replaces Dragon 1 for cargo transport and another designed to carry crew into space. In September 2014, NASA selected SpaceX and its Crew Dragon spacecraft to transport U.S. astronauts to the ISS, marking a significant milestone in the partnership.
Michael Liemohn, a professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan, underscored SpaceX's critical role in NASA's commercial cargo program. "When we retired the space shuttles, our only way for sending humans into low Earth orbit was to contract with Russia on a Soyuz capsule," he explained. This prompted NASA to commission both Boeing and SpaceX to develop new crew capsules, ensuring redundancy in human transport capabilities.
Jernigan pointed out that SpaceX has outperformed other competitors, including Boeing and its Starliner spacecraft. In June 2024, NASA astronauts executed the first crewed flight of the Starliner to the ISS; however, what was intended to be a brief mission extended into a nine-month stay due to various technical issues.
As of now, SpaceX stands as the sole U.S. provider for crewed missions. Jernigan remarked, "Not having SpaceX would be a big deal... If the SpaceX Dragon went away, it would be difficult to ramp up Boeing to replace SpaceX," highlighting the potential costs and challenges involved in transitioning away from SpaceX.
SpaceX also plays a significant role in NASA’s Artemis program, which is designed to return astronauts to the moon for the first time in over 50 years and eventually establish a permanent lunar base before venturing to Mars. SpaceX is the designated lunar lander provider for the initial flight, while Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, is the second provider.
Experts like Moriba Jah have raised concerns about the implications of decommissioning the Dragon spacecraft. "If Dragon goes away and then it's just Blue Origin, we would have to allocate more funding resources not just into trying to get Blue Origin to launch sooner, but also in being able to test all those technologies in ways that they haven't been tested yet," he stated. Currently, SpaceX's technologies have proven successful in transporting humans to and from space, a feat that Blue Origin has yet to accomplish.
