In his 1987 bestseller The Art of the Deal, Donald Trump famously stated, “The dollar always talks in the end.” This assertion seems particularly relevant following Javier Milei’s surprising victory in Argentina’s midterm elections, a triumph that was bolstered by a substantial $40 billion financial lifeline from Trump. The U.S. president had previously threatened to distance himself from Milei if the radical libertarian faced defeat in the crucial legislative vote.
During a recent visit to Washington, Milei sought economic assistance from Trump, who made it clear that his support hinged on the outcome of the election. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump announced, underscoring the high stakes involved. Milei’s political troubles had been escalating in recent months, as public dissatisfaction with Argentina’s sluggish economy grew, leading to market instability and a disappointing performance in the provincial elections held in September.
In response to Milei’s electoral challenges, Trump stepped in with a bold offer: a $20 billion currency swap deal and an additional $20 billion in economic support for what he described as a “dying” economy. However, Trump’s generosity came with a caveat—he indicated that this assistance would vanish if Milei did not achieve a significant victory.
Milei’s opponents accused Trump of blatant interference in Argentina’s electoral process through his explicit messages to voters. Some analysts predicted a potential backlash against Trump, similar to the anti-American sentiment observed in Brazil following U.S. efforts to influence the political landscape there. However, as results came in on election night, it became clear that Trump’s intervention may have actually swayed public opinion in Milei’s favor.
Diego Guelar, an Argentine politician and former ambassador, expressed concern over Trump’s warning to voters that they needed to support Milei to avoid losing American backing. Despite his reservations, Guelar acknowledged that Trump’s direct involvement appeared to resonate with voters, who seemed to accept the necessity of American assistance and placed blame for the economic crisis on the opposition.
Brian Winter, an expert on Argentine politics and editor of Americas Quarterly, noted that Trump’s intervention could be viewed as a strategic masterstroke. “He threw a lifeline to somebody who was drowning at just the right moment,” Winter stated. As a result, Milei’s libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances), secured nearly 41% of the vote, surpassing expectations and outpacing his Peronist rivals, who garnered 32%.
Following the election results, Argentina's financial markets responded positively, with significant increases in bonds, stocks, and the peso. Milei celebrated this outcome as a validation of his two-year “shock therapy” approach to economic reform. While Winter attempted to assess the extent of Trump’s influence on the election results, he noted that many voters still held the Peronist party accountable for years of economic turmoil, even as they expressed growing dissatisfaction with Milei.
Looking beyond Milei’s victory, it is evident that Trump’s focus on Latin America has sparked controversy. His administration has been characterized by a combination of economic incentives and aggressive diplomatic maneuvers across the region. From naval deployments near Venezuela to accusations against Mexico’s leadership and imposing tariffs on Brazil, Trump’s approach may not be winning him numerous allies in Latin America.
Yet, some analysts believe that Trump’s actions are yielding results, particularly in security and migration issues. Winter commented on how Trump has effectively influenced regional leaders to adopt a more proactive stance on these critical matters, reshaping the dynamics of U.S.-Latin America relations.
Trump’s strategy, which hearkens back to a 19th-century style of diplomacy involving rescue packages for allies and military pressure on adversaries, could have long-term repercussions. While Winter acknowledged that such a strategy might backfire, he emphasized that, for the moment, it appears to be effective, especially for Milei, who has emerged as Trump’s key ally in the region.
In the wake of his election victory, Milei took to social media platform X to express his gratitude towards Trump, declaring, “You are a great friend of the Argentine Republic,” and ending with their shared rallying cry: “Maga.” This highlights not only the significance of U.S. support for Milei’s administration but also the evolving landscape of U.S.-Argentina relations in the context of Trump’s broader Latin American strategy.
